近日，北京大学市场经济研究中心研究员李博助理教授与合作者的研究成果《A quantitative analysis of the optimal energy policy from the perspective of China's supply-side reform》在国际期刊《Sustainability (Switzerland)》2020年第12期正式发表。

　　Abstract: How does the capacity removal policy affect China’s economy? To quantify the policy outcomes and costs, a four-sector model with vertical market structures is built. The calibrated model shows that, to achieve the policy goal, 10% of equipment operation in the high energy-consuming sectors must be shut down. This policy leads to an improved energy structure in which total energy consumption drops by 4.75% at the cost of a contraction in economic growth, where the total output declines by 12.31%. The numerical experiments find that the optimal policy is to limit the production scale in both the iron/steel industry and the fossil energy industry, closing 9% and 7% of the production, respectively, since doing so minimizes output loss and improves the energy structure. This paper quantifies the impact of the current capacity removal policy and provides policy alternatives to reach the same policy target with a lower output loss.