近日，北京大学市场经济研究中心特聘研究员刘冲长聘副教授与合作者的合作论文《The agricultural and economic impacts of massive water diversion》在发展经济学领域顶级期刊《Journal of Development Economics》线上发表。

　　Abstract：We examine the agricultural and economic impacts of China’s South–North Water Diversion Project, a massive initiative that channels water from the resource-rich south to the drier north. Using a difference-in-differences approach, we find that the project increases total grain output by 8.2% and raises agricultural productivity by 4.7% in water-receiving counties. It also mitigates the adverse effects of drought shocks, leading to modest increases in local incomes. Improved water availability induces adaptive responses, including greater land allocation to water-intensive crops and a higher incidence of multi-cropping. Additionally, we find no evidence of significant losses in water-supplying areas. Our back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests an internal rate of return of 6.4%, underscoring the project’s economic viability.