近日，北京大学市场经济研究中心特聘研究员刘冲长聘教授的合作论文《How do smallholder farmers adapt to water scarcity? Evidence from the three Gorges Dam》在环境经济学领域期刊《Journal of Environmental Economics and Management》2026年8月第139卷正式发表。

摘要：Using the initial impoundment of the world’s largest hydroelectric dam as a natural experiment, we assess how farming households adapt to dam-induced seasonal water scarcity. We find that the impoundment of the TGD for power generation has altered the Yangtze River’s water cycle, seasonally reducing downstream water supply and causing rice yields to fall. In response to a persistent 12% decline in yields, subsistence households primarily expanded their farming area to maintain total output. While some households reallocated labor to non-agricultural sectors, this adaptation was significantly constrained by wealth endowment.