主讲人：Jaerim Choi（University of Hawaii at Manoa）
主持老师：（经院）莫家伟
参与老师：（经院）杨汝岱、田巍、刘政文，（新结构）王歆、徐铭梽
题目：Anxiety or Pain? The Impact of Tariffs and Uncertainty on Chinese Firms in the Trade War
时间：2020年11月13日（周五上午）9：00-10：30
地点：线上ZOOM平台 （会议ID：969 7252 4605；密码：107095）
报告摘要：
The unexpected outbreak of the U.S.-China trade war led to dramatic increases in the import and export tariffs confronting Chinese firms. Due to firm-level differences in trade engagement, customs trade data combined with tariff changes allow us to measure firm-level exposure to the trade war. Further, by adopting a new textual analysis approach to listed firms' annual reports, we develop trade policy uncertainty (TPU) measures that vary over firms and time. Our difference-in-differences examination of these firm-level data reveals that trade war increases in U.S. tariffs and Chinese retaliatory tariffs both raised Chinese firms’ TPU. The impact of tariffs on uncertainty is heterogeneous, and is most pronounced for smaller and less capital-intensive firms. This effect is also smaller for Chinese exporters that were more diversified in terms of partner countries. In the second stage of our analysis we explore and document the negative connection between Chinese firm-level increases in TPU and subsequent firm performance. Our estimates indicate that Chinese firms hit by a one standard deviation increase in TPU during the trade war reduced firm-level investment, R&D expenditures, and profits by 1.4, 2.7, and 8.9 percent, respectively.
主讲人简介：
Jaerim Choi is Assistant Professor of Economics at the University of Hawaii at Manoa. His research interests are in international trade, labor economics, and applied econometrics. Prior to joining the University of Hawaii at Manoa, he received his PhD from the University of California, Davis and worked at the Bank of Korea (Central Bank of South Korea).
供稿单位：经济学院科研办公室
供稿人：李自若
