北大经院工作坊第539场
社会保险扩面：Extreme Heat and Health Insurance Demand
风险、保险与不确定性经济学工作坊
主讲人：陈嫣然（首都经济贸易大学讲师）
主持人：（北大经院）贾若、（人大财金）陈泽、（清华经管）刁莉
参与老师：（北大经院）郑伟、（人大财金）魏丽、（清华经管）陈秉正等
时间：2022年11月3日（周四）10：00-11：30
地点：北京大学经济学院305会议室
腾讯视频，会议号：710-882-892，密码：221103
主讲人简介：
陈嫣然，讲师，现就职于首都经济贸易大学经济学院，美国耶鲁大学联合培养博士生（2018-2019），于2021年获得北京大学经济学博士学位。主要研究方向为健康经济学、环境经济学和劳动经济学，多篇研究成果发表于《世界经济文汇》、《劳动经济研究》、Social Science Medicine- Population Health等国内外期刊，出版专著1部。现主持一项国家自然科学基金青年项目。
摘要：
Accelerating climate change is one of the greatest challenges in the 21st century that threatens humanity. This study investigates the impact of relative extreme temperatures on health insurance purchasing decisions based on a large dataset of a critical illness insurance portfolio from a large life insurance company in China. Combined with the nation-wide long-term meteorological data, we find that the relative extreme heat events increase the purchase of health insurance. We also explore the mechanisms driving the patterns and the heterogeneity of the effects. Results indicate health risk mediates the impact of extreme heat on health insurance purchase, and contemporaneous air pollution strengthens the impact. Outdoor workers, small groups and elderly are more vulnerable and sensitive faced with the extreme temperatures.
北大经院工作坊第540场
Self-enforcing Power Dynamics
微观理论经济学工作坊
主讲人：罗兆天（美国芝加哥大学政治学与政治经济学助理教授、北京大学国家发展研究院访问助理教授）
主持老师：（北大经院）吴泽南、石凡奇（北大国发院）胡岠
参与老师：（北大经院）胡涛、吴泽南、石凡奇（北大国发院）汪浩、胡岠（北大光华）翁翕
时间：2022年11月3日（周四）10：30-12：00
地点：北京大学经济学院107会议室
主讲人简介：
罗兆天，美国芝加哥大学政治学与政治经济学助理教授，北京大学国家发展研究院访问助理教授。美国纽约大学政治学博士，对外经济贸易大学政治学学士。主要研究方向为政治经济学理论与博弈论。在American Journal of Political Science, Journal of Politics, Quarterly Journal of Political Science等期刊上发表多篇学术论文。
摘要：
This paper presents a model of self-enforcing power dynamics between a“ruler” and an“opponent”, in which the power of one side is defined by the probability to defeat the other side in a conflict. The ruler in some states of the world can appropriate all the surplus of the economy and may take steps to increase power, while in other states the ruler faces the opponent’s threat and must share some surplus to avoid conflict. These states evolve probabilistically depending on the current power of the ruler. The question is whether in equilibrium the ruler would share power with the opponent, refraining from further increasing power after gaining a satisfactory level. And, given the implied power dynamics, whether would conflict occur, when, and why.
北大经院工作坊第541场
Optimal Income Taxation: An Urban Economics Perspective
（最优收入税：一个城市经济的视角）
宏观经济学工作坊
主讲人：罗文澜（清华大学经管学院经济系副教授）
主持老师：（北大经院）李博
参与老师：（北大国发院）赵波、余昌华、李明浩 （北大经院）陈仪、韩晗、李伦
时间：2022年11月3日（周四）14：00-15：30
地点：北京大学经济学院107会议室
主讲人简介：
罗文澜，清华大学经管学院经济系副教授，博士生导师。2011年毕业于清华大学经管学院，获经济学学士学位。2017年获美国乔治城大学经济学博士学位。主要研究领域为宏观经济学。文章发表于American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, Economic Journal, Review of Economics and Statistics等学术期刊。主持国家自然科学基金。
摘要：
We derive an optimal labor income tax rate formula for urban models in which tax rates are deter-mined by traditional forces plus a new term arising from urban forces: house price, migration andagglomeration effects. Based on the earnings distribution, housing costs and housing tenure in largeand small US cities, we find that in a benchmark model (i) optimal income tax rates are U-shaped,(ii) urban forces raise optimal tax rates at all income levels and (iii) adopting an optimal tax systeminduces agents with low skills to leave large, productive cities.
北大经院工作坊第542场
Appetite for Treasuries, Debt Cycles, and Fiscal Inflation
计量、金融和大数据分析工作坊
主讲人：Fei Tan (Associate Professor of Economics, Saint Louis University)
主持老师：（北大经院）王熙
参与老师：（北大经院）王一鸣、王熙、刘蕴霆（北大国发院）沈艳、黄卓、张俊妮、孙振庭
时间：2022年11月4日（周五）10：00-11：30
地点：北京大学经济学院107会议室
主讲人简介：
Fei Tan, Associate Professor of Economics, Saint Louis University. His research agenda is organized around three areas: macroeconomics, Bayesian statistics, and evolutionary dynamics. One line of his recent research develops frequency-domain approaches to solving dynamic incomplete information models with applications to monetary and fiscal policy. Another line develops Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for estimating high-dimensional dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models. He also conducts research on the evolution of cooperative and altruistic human behavior.
摘要：
Despite accelerating debt levels, the real yield on U.S. Treasuries remains low due to investors' desire for their extreme safety and liquidity services. Economic theory makes clear that the fiscal surplus as a proportion of the outstanding debt must average out to the real interest rate over time. Exploring these equilibrium relations in a change-point vector autoregression model, I estimate the state-dependent properties of U.S. inflation and its stance of fiscal policy that characterize long-term debt cycles. An archetypal debt cycle consists of alternating phases of persistent deficits and surpluses in tandem with alternating patterns of inflation and fiscal stance. In line with these key properties found in the data, I present a simple analytical model based on the fiscal theory of the price level where the household has a preference for holding government bonds. Determinacy admits a standard passive monetary policy coupled with a broad range of active fiscal policy. When the real interest rate falls below the economy's growth rate, permanent fiscal deficits can be sustained in the long run. The model explains why fiscal inflation has largely remained benign over the past two decades.
北大经院工作坊第543场
能源清洁低碳转型的减排及健康效益
生态、环境与气候经济学工作坊
主讲人：李佳硕（山东大学教授）
主持老师：（北大经院）季曦
参与老师：（北大经院）章政、张博、李虹、张鹏飞、刘政文、梁远宁、庄晨（北大国发院）徐晋涛、王敏、邢剑炜、易媛媛、龙显灵（北大现代农学院）刘承芳、侯玲玲、解伟、王悦
时间：
2022年11月4日（周五）10：00-12：00
形式：腾讯会议 会议号：120-274-502
主讲人简介：
李佳硕，山东大学教授，博士生导师。近五年在Nature子刊和Cell姊妹刊等国内外知名期刊发表第一/通讯作者论文24篇。10篇论文进入ESI热点或高引论文检索，入选斯坦福大学全球2%顶尖科学家榜单。主持或作为合作单位负责人主持国家自然科学基金委优青、面上和青年等纵向项目5项。担任全球华人产业生态学会（CSIE）理事。成果获得山东省高等学校优秀科研成果一等奖。撰写资政报告获得中央领导肯定性批示。
摘要：
在全球积极推进气候治理和绿色低碳发展的背景下，加快能源结构绿色低碳转型，推进煤炭有序替代，是我国实现“碳达峰、碳中和”的关键。报告将围绕“能源清洁低碳转型减排及健康效益”展开，具体包括煤电厂清洁改造对二氧化碳和大气汞减排的影响、汞减排避免的人群健康损失核算等内容。
北大经院学术午餐会
第179期
Network Centralization and Corporate Fraud
主讲人：张鹏飞（北京大学经济学院副教授）
主持老师：高明（北京大学经济学院长聘副教授）
时间：2022年11月4日（周五）12:30-14:00
地点： 北京大学经济学院107会议室
主讲人简介：
北京大学经济学院副教授，资源、环境与产业经济学系系主任。研究领域是发展经济学和政治经济学，论文发表于Journal of Economics, Journal of Comparative Economics,《经济研究》和《经济学（季刊）》等刊物，曾担任Journal of Economic Theory, International Economic Review,《中国社会科学》和《经济学（季刊）》等刊物的匿名审稿人。
摘要：
This paper uses the market entity registration data to construct a longitudinal membership network for the corporate group corresponding to each unique listed firm in China from 2004 through 2021. We formulate and test a theoretical hypothesis that predicts the relationship between network centralization and corporate fraud. Network centralization reflects the extent of power concentration within a corporate group. We find that network centralization is positively related to fraud commission and negatively related to fraud detection. Bivariate probit model estimates show that a corporate group has a 9.1% higher likelihood of fraud commission and a 6.9% lower likelihood of detection conditional on committing fraud when its network centralization increases one standard deviation. We test two potential channels through which power concentration affects corporate fraud: coercive power and concealing information. Our results suggest that power structure significantly affects corporate governance. (论文合作者为陈锐钒，2018级人口、资源与环境经济学专业直博生)
供稿：经济学院科研与博士后办公室
美编：时之、初夏
责编：量子、禾雨、予天
