北大经院工作坊第582场
Minimum wage hikes increase employment in concentrated local labour markets
“经院-全健院”
健康与劳动经济学工作坊
主讲人：Kevin Devereux（北京大学经济学院助理教授）
主持人：吕蓓妮（北京大学全球健康发展研究院助理教授）
参与老师：
（北大经院）秦雪征、石菊、姚奕、王耀璟、梁远宁、庄晨
（北大全健院）刘国恩、孙宇、潘聿航、林昊翔
时间：2023年3月1日（星期三）10:00-11:30
地点：北京大学经济学院107会议室
线上会议：ZOOM平台
会议号：756 016 3457
密码：221221
主讲人简介：
Kevin Devereux is an assistant professor at the School of Economics at Peking University. His research interests are Labour, Family, and Health Economics, with an emphasis on empirical application.
摘要：
The effect of minimum wage hikes on employment is theoretically ambiguous. In competitive labour markets the effect must be negative, while in monopsonistic markets employment effects are positive up to the full employment wage and negative thereafter. While prior literature looks for a single average employment effect, we allow the effect to differ based on local labour market concentration and the prior level of minimum wages. We find large employment and hours increases in concentrated (monopsonistic) Irish local labour markets for the 2017 and 2018 minimum wage hikes, but zero or negative effects for the subsequent 2019 hike, suggesting the full employment wage had been reached. We find no significant effects in competitive local labour markets. This helps to resolve the lack of consensus on the employment effect of minimum wage hikes in Ireland and abroad.
北大经院工作坊第583场
Within-Firm Product Reallocation and Productivity Gains from Trade
国际经济学与实证产业组织工作坊
主讲人：陆毅（清华大学经济管理学院教授）
主持老师：（北大经院）莫家伟
参与老师：
（北大经院）杨汝岱、田巍、刘政文、吴群锋
（新结构）王歆、徐铭梽
时间：2023年3月1日（周三）10：00-11：30
地点：北京大学经济学院101会议室
主讲人简介：
陆毅，清华大学经济管理学院教授，经济系系主任，国家级人才计划入选者，首届中国青年经济学家奖获得者。陆毅教授1999年于复旦大学生命科学学院获得学士学位；2003年获得复旦大学管理学院硕士学位；2007年获得香港大学经济工商学院博士学位。先后在香港大学经济工商学院担任研究助理教授，新加坡国立大学经济系担任助理教授和长聘副教授。陆毅教授主要从事国际贸易、公共财政和中国经济领域的研究工作。在国内外一流经济学杂志发表论文数十篇，获得第八届高等学校科学研究优秀成果奖（人文社会科学）等奖项，并主持社科基金重大项目和自科基金面上项目等。目前担任American Economic Journal: Economic Policy编委，Journal of Comparative Economics，China & World Economy和《经济学报》的副主编，清华大学-芝加哥大学经济与金融联合研究中心联合主任，清华大学经济管理学院国际经济研究中心主任，清华大学中国财政税收所副所长，清华大学全球共同发展研究院副院长，清华大学中国经济社会数据研究中心副主任，国家统计局-清华大学数据开发中心副主任，清华大学国有资产研究院副院长。
摘要：
We study the within-firm product reallocation gains from trade. Exploring one product charged by antidumping duties, we find that multiproduct exporters significantly increase the exports of unaffected incumbent products and add newly exported products. Theoretically, productivity gains by product reallocation rely on the productivity ranking of the antidumping product and the correlation between product productivity and product trade costs. We then develop a framework to quantify the gains, involving two empirically measurable sufficient statistics. We find no effect of antidumping on physical productivity but a significantly effect on revenue productivity, suggesting the role of productivity measurement in the empirical investigation.
北大经院工作坊第584场
“Golden Ages”: A Tale of the Labor Markets in China and the United States
发展与公共财政工作坊
主讲人：仇心诚（亚利桑那州立大学凯瑞商学院助理教授）
主持老师：
（北大经院）刘冲、吴群锋、曹光宇
（北大国发院）李力行、席天扬、徐化愚、于航、王轩、易君健
时间：2023年3月1日（周三）10:00-11:00
形式：ZOOM会议
会议号：826 0647 3260
密码：445883
主讲人简介：
Xincheng Qiu will join the Department of Economics, W. P. Carey School of Business, Arizona State University, as an Assistant Professor. He is a Ph.D. candidate in the Department of Economics at the University of Pennsylvania. His research focuses on the macroeconomics of labor markets. He has been named the Dean's Scholar in recognition of his outstanding scholarly achievement.
摘要：
We study the labor markets in China and the United States, the two largest economies in the world, by examining the evolution of their cross-sectional age-earnings profiles during the past thirty years. We find that, first, the peak age in the cross-sectional age-earnings profiles, which we refer to as the “golden age,” stayed almost constant at around 45-50 in the U.S., but decreased sharply from 55 to around 35 in China; second, the age-specific earnings grew drastically in China, but stayed almost stagnant in the U.S.; third, the cross-sectional and life-cycle age-earnings profiles were remarkably similar in the U.S., but differed substantially in China. We propose and empirically implement a decomposition framework to infer from the repeated cross-sectional earnings data the experience effect (i.e., human capital accumulation over the life cycle), the cohort effect (i.e., inter-cohort human capital growth), and the time effect (i.e., changes in the human capital rental prices over time), under an identifying assumption that the growth of the experience effect stops at the end of one’s working career. The decomposition suggests that China has experienced a much larger inter-cohort productivity growth and higher increase in the rental price to human capital, but lower returns to experience, compared to the U.S. We also use the inferred components to revisit several important and classical applications in macroeconomics and labor economics, including growth accounting and the estimation of TFP growth, and the college wage premium and skill-biased technical change.
北大经院工作坊第585场
博士生专场（博士三年级及以上）
经济史工作坊
主讲人：徐之茵、吕泽众（北京大学经济学院）
主持老师：（北大经院）赵一泠、Mark Hup
参与老师：
（北大经院）郝煜、管汉晖、周建波
（北大光华）颜色
（北大国发院）席天扬、于航
时间：2023年3月2日（周四）12:00-13:30
地点：北京大学科技园201会议室
【一】
个人简介：
徐之茵，北京大学经济学院经济史学系2019级博士生
题目：
20世纪30-40年代固定汇率的运行和崩溃
摘要：
基于民国《中央银行月报》等第一手资料记载的中国汇率、利率、价格及货币发行月度数据，本文研究20世纪30-40年代固定汇率的运行与崩溃。研究发现，固定汇率时期价格基本稳定，利率平价得以实现，起到了名义锚的作用；以美国为基准国计算利率风险溢价，发现固定汇率制度确立之初降低了货币风险，1939年汇率危机则使货币风险再次上升；两次汇率危机均发生在储备数量与支持比率最低的时期，战后的财政赤字货币化与信贷扩张是储备损失的主要推动因素。
【二】
个人简介：
吕泽众，北京大学经济学院经济史学系2020级博士生
题目：
新中国疟疾疫情对人力资本积累的实证分析（1950-2008）
摘要：
本文使用1950-2008年中国30个省、自治区、直辖市，跨度58年的宏观面板数据，通过构建固定效应模型和双重差分模型探究了新中国成立后各地区疟疾疫情对人力资本积累的作用。研究结果表明：疟疾疫病的流行对当地人口增长具有显著的负面影响。疟疾疫情越严重的地区，人口总数越少，年自然增长率越低。同样的，疟疾疾病对地区就业和教育也存在负面影响。地区就业人数和中小学在读人数在疟疾发病率越高的地区越少。此外，本文比较了20世纪60年代和80年代两次疟疾防治政策的效果，发现由于60年代社会动荡管理不佳，导致1964年防疫政策并未发挥应有作用，而改革开放后社会稳定，体系完善，1986年防疫政策取得了优异的效果。本研究对理解新中国人力资本积累提供了帮助，丰富了有关疾病与人力资本的文献，为新中国成立后经济快速发展提供一个可能的解释，暗示了传染病疫情下公共政策干预带来的巨大好处，并表明了完善的防治、法制和管理体系对大范围公共卫生政策的有效实行有着重要意义。
北京大学金融午餐讨论会第14期
Minority Shareholder Activism and Corporate Dividend Policy: Evidence From China（中小股东积极主义与公司分红政策：来自中国的经验）
主讲人：王志斌（北京大学经济学院金融学系博士生）
时间：2023年3月2日（周四）12:00-13:30
地点：北京大学经济学院107会议室
主讲人简介：
王志斌，北京大学经济学院金融系博士生，研究方向为公司金融，共同基金和货币经济学。研究成果发表在SSCI期刊Pacific-Basin Finance Journal、International Review of Economics and Finance，并在China International Risk Forum等国际金融会议上宣读论文。同时担任FRL、IREF匿名审稿人。
摘要：
Minority shareholder activism (MSA) on online interactive platforms is a new form of corporate governance in China. This paper investigates whether and how dividend-related MSA affects corporate dividend policies. We find listed firms are more likely to pay dividends and raise payout ratios with MSA. Our baseline findings are robust to a variety of robustness checks. We establish a causal relationship between MSA and future dividend payouts, with both instrumental variable approach and PSM-DID approach, and we provide evidence to show the increasing effect of MSA can be explained by joint monitoring, compulsory responses, and regulator attention. Our focused MSA is different from the voting rights of minority shareholders. Overall, our findings suggest that minority shareholders can effectively monitor management when they are empowered with voice in the age of information.
第162次北大赛瑟（CCISSR）双周讨论会
寿险产品与经营
主讲人：王智勇（大家人寿副总经理兼总精算师）
主持人：朱南军（北京大学经济学院教授）
时间：2023年3月3日（周五）10：00-11：30
地点：北京大学经济学院302会议室
主讲人简介：
王智勇，1999年毕业于北京大学数学学院金融数学系，拥有24年保险从业经验，历任新华人寿产品开发高级经理、生命人寿总精算师、中邮人寿总精算师，现任大家人寿副总经理兼总精算师。
摘要：
近年来寿险市场发展倍受社会关注，增额终身寿等热点产品成为公众讨论的焦点，行业发展和产品变迁背后的驱动要素是什么？如何破解当下行业面临的困境？如何重新解读公司经营背后的产品逻辑？通过本次双周讨论会，共同研究与探讨这些问题，提升对中国寿险业未来发展的认识与理解。
主办单位：
北京大学中国保险与社会保障研究中心
北京大学经济学院风险管理与保险学系
北大经院工作坊第586场
Cluster Robust Inference in Linear Regression Models with Many Covariates（线性回归模型中多协变量下的聚类稳健推断）
计量、金融和大数据分析工作坊
主讲人：巩爱博（北京大学经济学院助理教授）
主持老师：（北大经院）王熙
参与老师：
（北大经院）王一鸣、刘蕴霆
（北大国发院）沈艳、黄卓、张俊妮、孙振庭
（北大新结构）胡博
时间：2023年3月3日（周五）10:00-11:30
地点：北京大学经济学院107会议室
主讲人简介：
巩爱博，现为北京大学经济学院助理教授，密西根大学博士，主要研究领域为计量经济学，相关研究已经发表在Journal of Economic Theory国际顶级期刊。
摘要：
Researchers often include many covariates in their linear regression models to control for confounders in empirical research in economics, statistics and social sciences. It is also common practice in empirical work to use cluster-robust standard errors. In this project, we develop inference methods that are robust to the presence of many covariates and to clustering. We find that when the number of included covariates grows at the same rate as the sample size, the commonly used Liang-Zeger and HC-k cluster robust standard errors are invalid in general. We propose cluster robust standard error formulas that are robust to the inclusion of possibly many covariates from different approaches and apply the standard errors under different setups. Simulation evidence supporting our theoretical results is also provided.
供稿：科研与博士后办公室、金融学系、风险管理与保险学系
美编：兮哲、初夏
责编：度量、雨禾、雨田
