北大经院工作坊第606场
Uncertainty, Liquidity Constraint, and Entrepreneurship
（不确定性，流动性约束和企业）
宏观经济学工作坊
主讲人：许志伟（北京大学汇丰商学院长聘副教授）
主持老师：（北大国发院）李博
参与老师：
（北大国发院）赵波、余昌华、李明浩
（北大经院）陈仪、韩晗、李伦
时间：2023年3月27日（周一）
地点：北京大学经济学院107会议室
主讲人简介：
许志伟，北京大学汇丰商学院，长聘副教授，毕业于香港科技大学经济系，获经济学博士学位，主要研究兴趣为中国宏观经济、宏观金融、货币政策、经济波动等。主持国家自科优秀青年基金等项目。获2016浦山世界经济青年论文奖、2020中国信息经济学会优秀成果奖、2022第七次全国优秀财政理论研究成果一等奖、2022中国信息经济学会创新成果奖等。主要论文发表在 American Economic Journal: Macro、Economic Journal、Journal of Development Economics、Journal of Economic Theory、Review of Economic Dynamics、Quantitative Economics 以及《经济研究》、《管理世界》、《经济学季刊》等期刊。目前担任 China and World Economy、Economic Modelling 、《经济学报》副主编（Associate Editor）。
摘要：
Entrepreneurial activity is risky by nature. Using a pan-European-firm-level dataset, this paper finds that fluctuations in uncertainty have asymmetric impacts on entrepreneurship formation along the productivity margin. Such asymmetry is more pronounced when external financial conditions tighten. We construct a quantitative model whereby liquidity constraint governs how uncertainty affects the endogenous occupation choice of ex-ante heterogeneous entrepreneurs. The model provides a parsimonious explanation of these stylized facts offers a structural interpretation of the real consequences of uncertainty along the margin of entrepreneurial entry.
北大经院工作坊第607场
Unified accounting of past and future climate damages
“经院-全健院”
健康与劳动经济学工作坊
主讲人：Marshall Burke（Stanford University, Doerr School of Sustainability and Center on Food Security and the Environment, Associate Professor）
主持老师：潘聿航（北京大学全球健康发展研究院助理教授）
参与老师：
（北大经院）秦雪征、石菊、姚奕、王耀璟、Kevin Devereux、梁远宁、庄晨
（北大全健院）刘国恩、孙宇、潘聿航、吕蓓妮、林昊翔
时间：2023年3月29日（星期三）10：00-11：30
形式：ZOOM会议
会议号：756 016 3457
密码：221221
主讲人简介：
Marshall Burke is associate professor of Global Environmental Policy in the Doerr School of Sustainability, and Deputy Director at the Center on Food Security and the Environment, both at Stanford University. He is also Research Fellow at the National Bureau of Economic Research. His research focuses on social and economic impacts of environmental change, and on measuring and understanding economic livelihoods across the developing world. His work regularly appears in both economics and scientific journals, including recent publications in Nature, Science, the Quarterly Journal of Economics, and The Lancet. He holds a PhD in Agricultural and Resource Economics from UC Berkeley. and a BA in International Relations from Stanford. He is also co-founder of AtlasAI, a start-up using satellites and machine learning to measure livelihoods.
摘要：
We present a unified framework for calculating country-specific climate damages resulting from past or future greenhouse gas emissions from any known emitter. We then demonstrate four applications of our framework: calculation of "carbon debt" owed by individual emitters (e.g. individual people or firms) based on particular past emissions, calculation of country-level "loss and damage" payments owed by large historical emitters to countries in which impacts occur, calculation of a social cost of carbon, and construction of a damage function that maps different levels of future warming to global aggregate economic damages. Carbon capture offers an alternative to transfer payments for settling carbon debts, but we show that later capture of given emission only reduces a portion of attributable damages.
北大经院工作坊第608场
Online Interactions, Trade and The Gravity Model
国际经济学与实证产业组织工作坊
主讲人：Constantin Bürgi（University College Dublin, School of Economics）
主持老师：（北大经院）莫家伟
参与老师：
（北大经院）杨汝岱、田巍、刘政文、吴群锋
（北大新结构）王歆、徐铭梽
时间：2023年3月29日（周三）10：00-11：30
地点：北京大学经济学院305会议室
摘要：
We evaluate the significance of traditional trade cost proxies (particularly physical distance) for online interactions in a low-trade-cost environment. To this end, we analyse a unique data set with over 25m multiplayer games played between December 2019 and August 2022 in the game Age of Empires 2. In line with the gravity model, we find that distance is a crucial factor in determining the number of interactions when trade costs are low. However, we also find that distance plays a role even in settings where trade costs should not be a factor. This suggests that the drivers of online interactions go beyond the traditional trade cost proxies. We then use our data to create a new measure of the intensity of online interactions and apply it to bilateral goods trade. We find that it can help explain trade between countries beyond traditional gravity controls for both cultural and non-cultural goods.
主讲人简介：
Constantin Bürgi is an Assistant Professor of Economics at University College Dublin and part of the Beijing Dublin International College. He has earned his PhD in Economics at George Washington University and has prior work experience at the global macroeconomics research department at Goldman Sachs and the international finance corporation (part of the world bank). His research interests include expectation formation, monetary policy and international economics.
北大经院工作坊第609场
Improving Equality in China’s College Admissions: Estimation and Policy Interventions
发展与公共财政工作坊
主讲人：钟笑寒（清华大学经济管理学院经济系教授）
参与老师：
（北大经院）刘冲、吴群锋、曹光宇
（北大国发院）李力行、席天扬、徐化愚、于航、王轩、易君健
时间：2023年3月29日（周三）11：30-13：00
地点：北京大学国家发展研究院承泽园245教室
主讲人简介：
钟笑寒，清华大学经济管理学院经济系教授。研究领域聚焦匹配机制的理论与实证研究，并涉及劳动经济学、发展经济学、教育经济学、政治经济学和应用微观经济学等广泛领域。论文发表在《博弈与经济行为（Games and Economic Behavior）》、《实验经济学（Experimental Economics）》、《中国社会科学》、《经济学季刊》、《世界经济》、《经济学报》、《数量经济技术经济研究》、《统计研究》、《中国工业经济》等国内外学术期刊。学术著作包括《中国农民故事》、《文物保护与旅游业发展》。讲授经济学原理、博弈论等课程。国家级教学奖获得者、精品课主讲教师。现任清华大学经济管理学院学院党委副书记，清华大学中国经济研究中心主任。
摘要：
A goal of the college admissions mechanism is to match high-ability students with high-quality colleges. In reality, however, the matching results often deviate from the meritocracy principle. We examine the extent of and reasons and policy remedies for this imperfect assortative matching in the context of the Chinese College Entrance Examination. Using nationally representative micro-level data from China, we find that with test scores held fixed, students with better socioeconomic conditions and who come from certain provinces end up in better colleges. We examine two forces driving this pattern: students’ heterogeneous preferences for colleges and the uneven distribution of provincial admissions quotas. We estimate a model of student–college matching to quantify the relative importance of the two mechanisms. Our results show that the current imperfect assortative matching is driven mainly by the uneven quota distributions rather than by the heterogeneity in student preferences. Counterfactual simulation suggests that consolidating quotas into a national market would greatly improve the assortative matching level, average expected wage after graduation, and student surplus.
北大经院工作坊第610场
Public Long-Term Care Insurance and Consumption of Elderly Households: Evidence from China
风险、保险与不确定性经济学工作坊
主讲人：刘宏（中国人民大学劳动人事学院教授）
主持老师：
（北大经院）贾若
（人大财金）陈泽
（清华经管）刁莉
参与老师：
（北大经院）郑伟
（人大财金）魏丽
（清华经管）陈秉正等
时间：2023年3月30日（周四）10：00-11：30
线下地点：北京大学经济学院606会议室
线上形式：腾讯会议
会议号：762-354-664
密码：230330
主讲人简介：
刘宏，现任中国人民大学劳动人事学院教授、博士生导师，主要研究领域为医疗保障、养老保障、健康经济学、劳动经济学和应用微观计量，在Journal of Development Economics、Social Science & Medicine、Journal of Economics Behavior & Organization、Journal of Comparative Economics、Journal of Population Economics、《经济研究》、《经济学（季刊）》、《世界经济》、《中国农村经济》、《财贸经济》等国内外一流经济学学术期刊上发表论文四十余篇，主持国家自然科学基金青年项目、面上项目、国家社科重大项目子课题和省部级课题等多项课题。
摘要：
This study investigates the impact of long-term care insurance (LTCI) on the non-health consumption of elderly households in China. By exploiting a quasi-experiment on the public LTCI pilot program in China, we identify the effect of LTCI using a triple-difference approach. Using longitudinal data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study, we find that LTCI has led to an increase in the non-health consumption of elderly households by 15.7%, which is mostly observed in households having no older members with need for long-term care (LTC). Further evidence suggests that the effects are stronger for households with higher expected LTC risks, less wealth or family insurance, and covered by more generous insurance schemes. Finally, LTCI is found to increase the expectation of using formal LTC when disabled and subjective longevity expectations for older adults currently having no need for LTC. Overall, these findings offer empirical support for the role of LTCI in mitigating precautionary savings against LTC risks.
北京大学金融午餐讨论会
第17期
Who Should Finance the Supply Chain? Impact of Accounts Receivable Mortgage on Supply Chain Decision
主讲人：程昱翔（北京大学经济学院金融系博士生，研究方向为供应链金融）
时间：2023年3月30日（周四）12：00-13：30
地点：北京大学经济学院107会议室
摘要：
We attempt to understand the role of accounts receivable mortgage in a capital-constrained supply chain and to capture the interaction of firms’ operations decisions within non-cooperation or cooperation conditions based on different bank credit policies. We consider a short-term loan directly to the retailer as a supplement to accounts receivable financing. Given different bank credit policies based on the retailer's and manufacturer's original operational capacity, we identify optimal decisions in different situations, finding that supply chain efficiency is better attained using bank short-term loans. Generally, firms with high solvency order more compared to low solvency firms. Specifically, we find that the optimal sourcing choices depend on the ratio of the share of the manufacturer with the share of the retailer (RMR). When RMR is low, trade credit would be better for sourcing. Conversely, bank credit would be the better choice for a capital-constrained supply chain. Finally, we present empirical evidence to demonstrate the results of our study.
北大经院工作坊第611场
Differences-in-differences with endogenous treatment decisions
（具有内生性处理决策的双重差分模型）
计量、金融和大数据分析工作坊
主讲人：Wooyong Lee（University of Technology Sydney）
主持老师：（北大经院）王熙
参与老师：
（北大经院）王一鸣、刘蕴霆、王法
（北大国发院）黄卓、张俊妮、孙振庭
（北大新结构）胡博
时间：2023年3月31日（周五）10：00-11：30
形式：ZOOM会议
会议号：896 7292 2199
密码：500394
主讲人简介：
Wooyong Lee is currently a lecturer (assistant professor) of Economics Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology Sydney. He received PhD from the University of Chicago in June 2020.
摘要：
This paper studies differences-in-differences (DID) models that allow the units to endogenously enter treatment in response to the variation in the time-varying unobservable covariates, which relaxes the standard parallel trend assumption and permits the well-known Ashenfelter's dip phenomenon (Ashenfelter, 1978). I show that, in this model, the average treatment effect on the treated (ATT) is identified only if there exists a group of exogenously untreated units, and that otherwise the data has no identifying power about the ATT. I then show that, even if there are no exogenously untreated units, the average treatment effect on the not yet treated (ATNT), which is the average effect of the treatment that the units would have experienced if they entered into treatment earlier than the actual treatment period, is partially identified under suitable additional assumptions. I propose an estimation and inference procedure for the ATT and the ATNT, whose finite-sample performance is examined by simulations.
供稿：科研与博士后办公室、金融学系
美编：兮哲
责编：度量、雨禾、雨田
