北大经院工作坊第748场
The Causes of Ukrainian Famine Mortality, 1932-33
发展与公共财政工作坊
主讲人：Nancy Qian（Professor, Kellogg School of Management, Northwestern University）
主持老师：
（北大经院）刘冲、吴群锋、曹光宇
（北大国发院）李力行、席天扬、徐化愚、于航、王轩、易君健、黄清扬
时间：2023年11月7日（周二）10：30-12：00
地点：北京大学国家发展研究院承泽园429教室
主讲人简介：
Nancy Qian is the James J. O'Connor Professor at Kellogg MEDS and a professor of the Department of Economics by courtesy appointment. Professor Qian's research uses data to understand the determinants of economic development. Her work lies on the intersection of economic development, political economy, and economic history in studying the causes and consequences of formal institutions, such as elections, and cultural norms, such as gender preference and racial identity. Her work spans many current and historical contexts such as China, the United States, former Eastern Bloc countries and sub-Saharan Africa.
摘要：
We construct large, unique panel data to study the causes of Ukrainian famine mortality (Holodomor) during 1932-33 and document several new facts: i) Ukraine (the Soviet Union) produced enough food in 1932 to avoid famine in Ukraine (the Soviet Union); ii) mortality was increasing in the pre-famine ethnic Ukrainian population share and unrelated to food productivity across regions; iii) this pattern exists across the Soviet Union, even outside of Ukraine; iv) the pattern was similar at different administrative levels; v) migration restrictions exacerbated mortality; vi) actual and planned grain procurement were increasing, while actual and planned grain retention (production minus procurement) were decreasing in the ethnic Ukrainian population share across regions. Anti-Ukrainian bias in Soviet policy explains up to 92% of famine mortality in Ukraine and 77% in Ukraine, Russia and Belarus; approximately half of the total effect comes from bias in the centrally planned food procurement policy.
北大经院工作坊第749场
International Welfare Gains from Sharing Climate-Risk
（共担气候风险的国际福利改进）
宏观经济学工作坊
主讲人：Felix Kübler（Yale University）
主持老师：（北大经院）李博
参与老师：
（北大国发院）赵波、余昌华、李明浩
（北大经院）陈仪、韩晗、李伦
时间：2023年11月7日（周二）10：00-11：30
地点：北京大学经济学院107会议室
主讲人简介：
Felix Kübler，美国耶鲁大学博士。他先后在美国斯坦福大学、宾夕法尼亚大学以及德国曼海姆大学担任教授。Felix Kübler现任苏黎世大学金融经济学教授和瑞士金融学院高级主席。Kübler教授是计量经济学会会士和经济理论会士。他曾获得欧洲研究理事会(European Research Council)的启动基金和德语经济学家协会(Verein für Socialpolitik)的Gossen奖。Kübler主要研究领域为计算经济学、一般均衡理论和异质主体宏观经济学。Kübler教授研究成果丰富，在著名经济学杂志American Economic Review, Econometrica, Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Statistics, Journal of Economic Theory, AEJ Micro, International Economic Review, Journal of Economic and Dynamic Control, Review of Economic Dynamics等杂志上发表数十篇文章。
摘要：
In this paper, we consider a heterogeneous agents model of a production economy with uncertain climate change and evaluate the welfare gains from the introduction of securities that pay contingent on average surface temperature and total yearly emissions. Since different regions will be affected dramatically differently by climate change, potential welfare gains from sharing climate risk are large. In our benchmark calibration, the region most affected by climate change gains almost 10 percent in wealth equivalent welfare. This takes into account price effects and assumes no transfers. With transfers, the completion can be Pareto-improving, with the poorest region gaining more than 15 percent. We conduct a global sensitivity analysis where we consider a range of parameter values that are considerably more conservative than in the benchmark. We find that the result of significant welfare gains is robust, although they are, on average, much smaller than in our benchmark. By computing first-order Sobol’ indices, we demonstrate that the main driver of uncertainty is the standard deviation of the equilibrium climate sensitivity.
《行业研究前沿》课程系列
2023年第3期
AI产业趋势
主讲人：旷实（广发证券传媒互联网行业首席分析师）
时间：2023年11月7日（周二）18：40-20：30
形式：腾讯会议
会议号：523-485-130
主讲人简介：
旷实，广发证券传媒互联网行业首席分析师。曾获2018-2022年连续五年获新财富最佳分析师第一名，2017-2022年连续六年获卖方分析师水晶球奖第一名，2019-2022年上证报最佳分析师第一名，2020-2022年新浪金麒麟最佳分析师第一名，2021-2022年中国证券业分析师金牛奖第一名，2019年获机构投资者-财新中国大陆地区最佳传媒分析师第一名等。
主持人：锁凌燕（北京大学经济学院教授）
主办单位：
北京大学经济学院
北京大学中国保险与社会保障研究中心
北京大学中国金融研究中心
北大经济史学名家系列讲座
第194讲
重商主义与明清中国——以财富观、货币观为中心
主讲人：岸本美绪（日本国立御茶水女子大学名誉教授、东洋文库研究员）
时间：2023年11月8日（周三）9：30-12：00
形式：腾讯会议
会议号：713-540-952
主持人：周建波（北京大学经济学院经济史学系主任、教授）
评论人：
叶坦（北京大学经济学院讲席教授）
朱荫贵（复旦大学历史系教授）
李春利（日本爱知大学研究生院院长、教授）
王日根（厦门大学历史与文化遗产学院教授）
张亚光（北京大学经济学院副院长、长聘副教授）
主讲人简介：
岸本美绪是日本著名中国学家，1994年任东京大学教授、2007年任御茶水女子大学教授。主要研究方向为明清社会经济史，其研究涉及物价、贸易、经济思想、经济政策、民众运动、民事法和地方审判以及士风民俗等。这些看似分散的主题中蕴含共同的问题关心，即依据基层社会中生活的当时人的思考理路，去理解明清时代的社会现象。其实证研究以微观分析为主，同时关注宏观视野的方法论，如东亚世界论、“早期近代（early modern）”论，以及比较研究等方法。其研究大目标是把微观的基层社会研究和宏观的全球性视野结合起来，描写与阐述明清社会的生动面貌及其历史意义。她是著名的“地域社会论”研究的引领者，主要关注地域社会中的秩序观念；同时在明清时代的物价考察、经济波动、契约民法、士风民俗等领域，作出了开创性的贡献。2023年3月岸本美绪教授荣获第31届福冈亚洲文化奖学术研究奖。主要学术著作有《清代中国的物价与经济波动》（日文版1997, 中文版2010）、《风俗与历史观：明清时代的中国与世界》（中文版2022）、《明清交替与江南社会》（1999， 以下均为日文版）、《明末清初中国与东亚近世》（2021）、《明清史论集》（全4册，2012-2021）等。
主办单位：
北京大学经济学院经济史学系
北京大学社会经济史研究所
北京大学外国经济学说研究中心
北大经院工作坊第750场
Tell Me Something I don't Already Know: Learning in Low and High-inflation Settings
（低通胀与高通胀环境下的学习）
宏观经济学工作坊
主讲人：Michael Weber（Chicago Booth）
主持老师：（北大经院）李博
参与老师：
（北大国发院）赵波、余昌华、李明浩
（北大经院）陈仪、韩晗、李伦
时间：2023年11月08日（周三）10:00-11:30
形式：ZOOM会议
会议号：937 3566 5359
密码：305936
主讲人简介：
Michael Weber joined Chicago Booth in 2014 as an Assistant Professor of Finance and was promoted to Associate Professor in 2018. He is also a faculty research fellow at the National Bureau of Economic Research in the Monetary Economics and Asset Pricing groups, Research Affiliate in the Monetary Economics and Fluctuations programme of CEPR, a member of the Macro Finance Society, a Research Professor at Ifo Institute and a research affiliate at the CESifo Research Network. He is also academic consultant for the European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, and several other central banks.
His research interests include asset pricing, macroeconomics, international finance, and household finance. His work on downside risk in currency markets and other asset classes earned the 2013 AQR Insight Award. He has published in leading economics and finance journals such as the American Economic Review, the Review of Economic Studies, the Review of Financial Studies and the Journal of Financial Economics.
摘要：
Using randomized control trials (RCTs) applied over time in different countries, we study how the economic environment affects how agents learn from new information. We show that as inflation has recently risen in advanced economies, both households and firms have become more attentive and informed about inflation, leading them to respond less to exogenously provided information about inflation and monetary policy. We also study the effects of RCTs in countries where inflation has been consistently high (Uruguay) and low (New Zealand) as well as what happens when the same agents are repeatedly provided information in both low- and high-inflation environments (Italy). Our results broadly support models in which inattention is an endogenous outcome that depends on the economic environment.
北大经院工作坊第751场
Actively Calculating the Financial Consequences of Health Outcomes Improves Preventive Judgments
经院-全健院
“健康与劳动经济学”工作坊
主讲人：崔知涵（University of California, Los Angeles）
主持老师：（北大经院）庄晨
参与老师：
（北大全健院）刘国恩、吕蓓妮、潘聿航、林昊翔、孙宇、杨佳楠
（北大经院）秦雪征、石菊、姚奕、王耀璟、袁野、梁远宁
时间：2023年11月8日（周三）10：00-11：30
地点：北京大学经济学院107会议室
主讲人简介：
Zhihan Cui is a Postdoctoral Scholar in the Division of Behavioral Decision Making at the Anderson School of Management at University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA). His research examines the importance of bounded rationality and behavioral biases in health judgment and decisions, and designs effective nudging in mitigating these biases. Zhihan holds a doctorate in sustainable development from Columbia University, and double-bachelor’s degrees in materials chemistry and economics from Peking University. Zhihan has published various health-related works in different journals in economics, psychology and health sciences, such as Economic Letters, Health Psychology, and Vaccines. He is also the chair founder of a non-profit research group, Jungus Assessments, one of the largest personality and cognitive style assessment platform in China, having served tens of millions of online users.
摘要：
There is a growing belief that individuals may exhibit bounded rationality in preventive health decisions. Drawing from the integration of behavioral science and economics, we propose that individuals might deviate from this assumption in two key aspects: non-salience of financial losses as an implicit outcome of illnesses; and evaluability issues, i.e. difficulty in relating numerical health data to their situation. To increase people’s attention to financial losses and make health outcomes more evaluable, we designed an intervention entitled “Active Unpacking with Money” (AUM), which directs DMs to actively calculate the monetary losses from experiencing a negative health condition over a specified time period. Through a series of six consecutive online experiments, we demonstrate that: (1) AUM amplifies people’s perceived severity of health risks and their willingness-to-pay (WTP) for a guaranteed preventive measure; (2) AUM heightens people’s sensitivity to the length of a disease; and (3) AUM bolsters sensitivity to probabilistic information about prevention measure effectiveness. We clarify how AUM assists in mitigating both salience and evaluability challenges within these contexts, and why AUM is likely welfare-improving. Finally, we discuss its practical implications in health communication, especially how organizations can incorporate AUM-related information with websites and text messages.
供稿：科研与博士后办公室
美编：初夏、兮哲
责编：度量、雨禾、雨田
