北大经院工作坊第783场
Closing the Gender Gap in Multilateral Negotiations Through Institutional Design
经院-全健院
“健康与劳动经济学”工作坊
主讲人：Diogo Geraldes（School of Economics, University College Dublin; Geary Institute for Public Policy）
主持老师：（北大经院）Kevin Devereux
参与老师：
（北大全健院）刘国恩、吕蓓妮、潘聿航、林昊翔、孙宇、杨佳楠
（北大经院）秦雪征、石菊、姚奕、王耀璟、袁野、梁远宁、庄晨
时间：2023年12月6日（周三）10：00-11：30
地点：北京大学经济学院107会议室
主讲人简介：
Dr Geraldes is an Assistant Professor (Above the Bar) at the School of Economics, University College Dublin, a Research Fellow at the Geary Institute for Public Policy, and a Researcher at the Science of Diversity & Inclusion Initiative. In his research, he combines economic experiments, economic theory, and techniques of econometrics analysis to tackle policy-relevant questions. His work has been published in top international journals including Management Science.
摘要：
Experimental evidence from different subject pools shows that men earn more than women in majoritarian negotiations. Three stylized modes of behavior emerge as potential reasons for the gap: men sort into making opening offers more often, prefer to partner with other men, and when partnering with each other, their coalitions are more stable compared to mixed-gender ones. We design three experimental interventions to investigate the explanatory role each channel plays in the emergence of the gap and, consequently, provide potential solutions. We find that enabling everyone to simultaneously make an initial proposal does not close the earnings gap, if anything, it weakly grows in magnitude. Hiding gender eliminates bias in coalition partner choice, alters bargaining dynamics, and equalizes mean earnings. Finally, allowing for instantly-binding agreements in bargaining closes the gap, not only because mixed-gender coalitions become more stable, but also because women become preferred partners. Our results highlight how the attributes of the negotiation environment interact with gender, and suggest that the design of bargaining institutions can be leveraged to promote gender equity.
北大经院工作坊第784场
Desired Fertility, Actual Fertility, and China’s Universal Two-Child Policy
发展与公共财政工作坊
主讲人：刘畅（中国人民大学国家发展与战略研究院副教授）
主持老师：
（北大经院）刘冲、吴群锋、曹光宇
（北大国发院）李力行、席天扬、徐化愚、于航、王轩、易君健、黄清扬
时间：2023年12月6日（周三）11:30-13:00
地点：北京大学国家发展研究院承泽园246教室
主讲人简介：
刘畅，现任中国人民大学国家发展与战略研究院副教授。北京大学光华管理学院经济学博士，曾在普林斯顿大学和香港中文大学（深圳）进行博士后研究。研究成果发表于Journal of Public Economics、Journal of Development Economics、Journal of Law、Economics & Organization、Journal of Comparative Economics、《中国社会科学》、《经济研究》、《世界经济》、《经济学季刊》和《金融研究》等中英文杂志。主持国家自然科学基金等科研项目。曾获得全国优秀财政理论研究成果一等奖、洪银兴经济学奖、当代经济学博士创新项目、邓子基财经学术论文奖、《金融研究》年度优秀论文和中国人民大学优秀科研成果奖等奖励和荣誉。
摘要：
This paper evaluates the impact of China’s Universal Two-Child Policy on fertility outcomes using nationally representative administrative survey data. We estimate that the policy increased the total fertility rate (TFR) of eligible women by 0.112, mainly due to women who had unmet fertility preferences. We also find that housing prices, as a proxy for childbearing costs, negatively affected women’s fertility desires. A 10% increase in housing prices would reduce the policy-induced births by 0.188 on average. The dampening effect of housing prices was more pronounced for women without urban housing and women aged 20-30. Furthermore, we simulate the medium-term policy effect based on respondents’ reported fertility plans. The results indicate that the policy effect reached its peak in the first two years and then declined rapidly as the pent-up demand for births was satisfied. Our findings suggest that possible future policies to increase fertility should focus on reducing childbearing costs and maintaining fertility desires.
北大经院工作坊第785场
Water, Trade and Climate Change
（水资源、国际贸易与气候变化）
生态、环境与气候变化经济学工作坊
主讲人：饶德宇（香港科技大学商学院助理教授）
主持老师：（北大经院）季曦
时间：2023年12月8日（周五）10:00-12:00
地点：北京大学经济学院302会议室
主讲人简介：
饶德宇，香港科技大学商学院助理教授，并同时任职于香港科技大学经济政策中心。他毕业于康奈尔大学应用经济与管理学院，主要研究方向为环境经济学和城市经济学，研究重点是消费者和政府对环境挑战的应对，以及利用数量空间方法研究空气污染和气候变化对经济的影响。所著论文曾发表于The Review of Economics and Statistics，同时为JAERE, JEEM, JEBO, CER等期刊匿名审稿。
摘要：
Climate change is set to exert significant and varied impacts on global water resources, resulting in prolonged drought periods and heightened water stress. This study aims to quantify the aggregate and distributional impacts of climate change-induced changes through two main objectives: 1) assessing the differentiated influence of precipitation on agricultural productivity across diverse climate zones, and 2) simulating the repercussions of precipitation shocks using a multi-industry Ricardian trade model grounded in Eaton and Kortum's (2002) framework. Our analysis spans three critical dimensions: 1) estimating economic losses from previous drought events, 2) projecting potential losses under future climate change scenarios, and 3) evaluating the elasticity of global and local welfare in response to local water shocks (i.e., the value of water).
Our examination of the 2018 South Asian drought reveals a global cost ranging from $8-10 billion USD. Projections under current climate scenarios indicate that precipitation changes will lead to a 0.17% reduction in global welfare by the century's end, with South Asia and Africa emerging as particularly pivotal regions. Importantly, our findings underscore the necessity of considering general equilibrium effects propagated through trade and the production network. Neglecting these aspects results in a substantial underestimation, halving the impact of water shocks. Our study emphasizes the urgent need to integrate trade models for a comprehensive understanding of the cascading global effects across multiple sectors and regions.
北大经院工作坊第786场
Risk in Mining and Cryptocurrency Returns: Evidence from Electricity Prices
计量、金融和大数据分析工作坊
主讲人：杨昊晰（南开大学助理教授）
主持老师：（北大经院）王熙
参与老师：
（北大经院）王一鸣、刘蕴霆、王法
（北大国发院）黄卓、张俊妮、孙振庭
（北大新结构）胡博
时间：2023年12月8日（周五） 10:00-11:30
地点：北京大学经济学院107会议室
主讲人简介：
Haoxi Yang is an associate professor in Finance at Nankai University. She obtained her Ph.D. in Finance from Bocconi University. He primary research interests lies in asset pricing, macro finance and financial econometrics. Her expertise centers on asset return predictability and asset pricing models. Her research has published in Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Journal of Banking and Finance, IMF Economic Review, Economic Research Journal (经济研究) et. al.
摘要：
This study develops a simple framework of supply for cryptocurrencies to quantify the role of electricity prices by examining cryptocurrency miners’ optimization. Cryptocurrency miners optimally adjust the supply of cryptocurrencies to changes in electricity prices. The optimal condition infers cryptocurrency returns from miners’ exposure to changes in electricity prices. Our empirical analysis confirms the model implications and shows that the rolling–window exposure of cryptocurrency returns to percentage changes in electricity prices (βM) can positively predict the cross–section of future cryptocurrency returns across major exchanges. Further evidence reveals that the predictive power of βM is more pronounced when estimating βM with electricity prices from mining–intensive regions. A global risk–in–mining factor can explain, across different cryptocurrency exchanges, a series of well–documented cryptocurrency anomalies including the ones regarding cryptocurrency market capitalization and momentum.
北大经院工作坊第787场
Labor Frictions, Market Demand and Firm Exports: The Experience of Chinese Firms (劳动摩擦，市场需求和公司出口：来自中国公司的证据)
宏观经济学工作坊
主讲人：Guanliang HU (City University of Hong Kong)
主持老师：（北大经院）李博
参与老师：
（北大国发院）赵波、余昌华、李明浩
（北大经院）陈仪、韩晗、李伦
时间：2023年12月8日（周五）10:00-11:30
地点：北京大学国家发展研究院承泽园131教室
主讲人简介：
Guanliang HU is currently serving as an Assistant Professor at the City University of Hong Kong. He obtained his PhD from Penn State University in 2022, specializing in the fields of macroeconomics and international trade. His current research interests focus on uncertainty shocks, trade dynamics, and aspects of the Chinese economy.
摘要：
This paper studies the determinants of firms' exporting status. The economic framework stresses the dynamic decision by both state and privately controlled entities to export in a model with labor adjustment costs, stochastic market demands, and trade frictions. The model is estimated using data from both types of enterprises in China to gain insights into the factors that play a role in determining export status. The experiments conducted based on the estimated model reveal that within this complex environment, a simple decision rule whereby export status depends only on current productivity does not hold. Additionally, the analysis demonstrates that trade frictions are insufficient to explain the observed data patterns, which include substitution between concurrent domestic and foreign sales, and the skewed distribution of export shares. The analysis highlights the economic significance of labor adjustment costs as well as demand shocks in shaping the dynamics of both employment and export status.
供稿：科研与博士后办公室
美编：时之
责编：度量、雨禾、雨田
