北大经院工作坊第817场
Gender Effect and Gender Norms in Chinese Courts
经济史工作坊
主讲人：于晓红（清华大学社会科学学院政治学系长聘副教授）
时间：2024年3月7日(周四)12:00-13:30
地点：北京大学经济学院301会议室
主讲人简介：
Yu Xiaohong is an Associate Professor of Political Science at the School of Social Sciences, Tsinghua University. She earned her Ph.D. in Political Science from Columbia University. Prior to her position at Tsinghua, she served as an An Wang Postdoctoral Fellow at the Fairbank Center for Chinese Studies and was a Visiting Lecturer in the Department of Government at Harvard University. Her primary research interests include Chinese politics, comparative judicial politics, and empirical legal studies. She continually explores China’s judicial reforms, the interplay between law and politics in China, and instructs courses such as “Judicial Politics” and “Law and Politics in the Era of Big Data.” Her scholarly work has been featured in leading domestic and international journals and academic presses, including the Journal of Empirical Legal Studies, China Quarterly, Cambridge University Press, CASS Journal of Political Science, Tsinghua Law Review, Open Times, and China Law Review, among others.
摘要：
The present study sets out to investigate the gender effects observed in Chinese courts by examining the radical disruption and subsequent restoration of Confucian gender norms. While previous scholars have identified gender effects in both criminal and civil cases in China, the factors contributing to these effects and their underlying logic remain unclear. By analyzing a dataset comprising 41,252 criminal cases decided between 2014 and 2020, this study reveals the existence of gender effects specifically in cases related to gender issues. Female defendants receive significantly shorter sentences than male defendants in certain cases. Additionally, in regions with a strong Confucian influence, the gender effect appears to be more pronounced in certain cases. However, the impact of gender norms on sentencing is neutralized in areas associated with China’s revolutionary past. Gender norms no longer impact gender effects in revolutionary base areas. The study contributes to the literature on law and courts by providing further evidence of gender effects in China, adding nuances to the social context of judging, and providing empirical evidence of social norms and norm changes.
第169次北大赛瑟（CCISSR）双周讨论会
健康保险产品的设计和定价
主讲人：何剑钢（爱选科技联合创始人）
主持人：陈凯（北京大学经济学院副教授）
时间：2024年3月7日（周四）10：10-12：00
地点：北京大学第二教学楼304教室
主讲人简介：
何剑钢，爱选科技联合创始人，北京大学经济学院硕士校外导师，中国保险学会智库专家。
北京大学金融数学系本科和硕士，中国精算协会正会员(FCAA)、北美精算师(FSA)、加拿大精算师(FCIA)。
先后在中国、加拿大多家保险公司和再保险公司工作，原中国精算师协会寿险与健康险工作部兼经验分析办公室副主任，主持过协会多项行业重大项目，如中国第三套生命表编制工作，内含价值标准制定，人身险公司费用调研等项目。是北美精算师协会和国际精算师协会多个研究和委员会成员。在产品定价、评估、经验分析、内含价值、经济资本、再保险和精算软件方面有丰富的精算经验。
摘要：
首先从我国商业健康险整体市场概况着手，梳理健康保险的多样性和分类；其次分别详细介绍重大疾病保险，医疗保险（百万医疗，惠民保，长期医疗），长期护理保险的产品概况、进一步分析了各产品设计的趋势与统计数据，责任条款的设计原则及其在市场中的分布情况；最后从定价的角度入手，介绍以上各产品定价时主要考量的因素。
北大经院工作坊第818场
贸易政策的经济和环境影响研究
生态、环境与气候变化经济学工作坊
主讲人：杨翠红（中囯科学院数学与系统科学研究院研究员）
主持老师：（北大经院）季曦
时间：2024年3月8日（周五）9:30-11:00
地点：北京大学经济学院606会议室
主讲人简介：
杨翠红，中囯科学院数学与系统科学研究院研究员、副院长。中囯科学院管理、决策与信息系统重点实验室主任，中囯科学院预测科学研究中心副主任，中国科学院大学岗位教授。发展中国家科学院院士，国家杰出青年基金获得者。主要研究领域为投入产出技术与经济预测、全球价值链与贸易利益、宏观经济分析与政策。兼任国际投入产出协会副理事长和中国投入产出学会常务副理事长。发表论文90余篇，多篇政策研究报告得到中央主要领导和部委好评。曾获TWAS Siwei Cheng Prize of Economics、中国青年科技奖、孙冶方经济科学奖等国内外奖项10余项。
摘要：
本次讲座将结合演讲嘉宾课题组的几篇文章，介绍全球生产网络下贸易政策对我国及相关经济体的经济和环境影响，特别是对全球碳排放的影响。
注：如需要用餐，请扫描下方二维码报名。
北大经院工作坊第819场
Economic forecasts using many noise（使用很多噪音的经济预测）
计量、金融和大数据分析工作坊
主讲人：Yuan Liao（Professor of Economics at Rutgers University）
主持老师：（北大经院）王法
参与老师：
（北大经院）王一鸣、王熙、刘蕴霆
（北大国发院）黄卓、张俊妮、孙振庭
（北大新结构）胡博
时间：2024年3月8日（周五）10:00-11:30
形式：ZOOM会议
会议号：834 3988 8568
会议密码：321668
主讲人简介：
Yuan Liao is a Professor of Economics specializing in Econometrics. He works at the intersection of financial econometrics and statistics. He received his Ph.D. in Statistics from Northwestern University in 2010. Before joining Rutgers, Yuan held a position as Assistant Professor of Statistics at University of Maryland (2012-2016), and worked at Princeton University as a postdoctoral associate (2010-2012). He is currently associate editor of Journal of Econometrics and JASA.
摘要：
This paper addresses a key question in economic forecasting: does pure noise truly lack predictive power? Economists typically conduct variable selection to eliminate noises from predictors. Yet, we prove a compelling result that in most economic forecasts, the inclusion of noises in predictions yields greater benefits than its exclusion. Furthermore, if the total number of predictors is not sufficiently large, intentionally adding more noises yields superior forecast performance, outperforming benchmark predictors relying on dimension reduction. The intuition lies in economic predictive signals being densely distributed among regression coefficients, maintaining modest forecast bias while diversifying away overall variance, even when a significant proportion of predictors constitute pure noises. One of our empirical demonstrations shows that intentionally adding 300~6,000 pure noises to the Welch and Goyal (2008) dataset achieves a noteworthy 10% out-of-sample R square accuracy in forecasting the annual U.S. equity premium. The performance surpasses the majority of sophisticated machine learning models.
北大经院工作坊第820场
Financial Shocks and Portfolio Preferences: Evidence from the Failure of the Freedmen's Savings Bank（金融冲击与投资偏好：来自弗里德曼储蓄银行失败的证据）
宏观经济学工作坊
主讲人：Gary Richardson (University of California at Irving)
主持老师：（北大经院）李博
参与老师：
（北大国发院）赵波、余昌华、李明浩
（北大经院）陈仪、韩晗、李伦
时间：2024年3月8日（周五）10:00-11:30
地点：北京大学国家发展研究院承泽园131教室
主讲人简介：
Professor Gary Richardson is currently associate professor at the Department of Economics, University of California at Irving. He received his Ph.D. in Economics from University of California at Berkeley at 1999. He is currently faculty research associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research. His research focuses on economic history, financial markets and macroeconomics. His research has been published in the Journal of Political Economy, Journal of Economic History and many other top journals.
摘要：
This paper examines the long-term impact on portfolio preferences for individuals who experience financial shocks. The Freedmen's Savings Bank was the first financial intitution in which most Black Americans invested. It held the deposits of most recently freed slaves. Ten years after emancipation, the FSB failed, trapping the savings of most recently freed Black Americans, who eventually lost almost half of their savings. Our difference-in-difference methods show that men and women who lost funds in the Freedmen's bank collapse deposited fewer funds in banks in the future and instead shifted their savings towards a competing financial product issued by life insurance companies. Impacted individuals retained these preferences throughout their lives, even after moving to new locations far from where they had been enslaved or lost their desposits. They also passed these preferences to their childrens and, after migration, may have passed them to their new neighbors.
北京大学金融工程实验室 “问道华尔街”系列讲座
第2讲：Financial Modeling and Model Independence
主讲人：Dr. Kevin Atteson（Adjunct professor at NYU, former Managing Director at Morgan Stanley）
主持老师：（北大经院）黎新平
时间：2024年3月9日（周六）9:00-11:00
形式：ZOOM会议
会议号：845 1894 4251
会议密码：f3tN9r
主讲人简介：
Dr. Kevin Atteson is a quant with more than 20 years of experience and an adjunct professor at NYU Tandon School of Engineering. Dr. Atteson previously worked managing the quantitative asset management team at the large family office Summer Road and managing quantitative teams as a Managing Director at Morgan Stanley and as a Vice President at Goldman Sachs. Dr. Atteson had earlier founded the computer technology company Double Prime, which is presently part of the global computer services firm Cognizant. Dr. Atteson has a PhD in Computer Science from the University of Pennsylvania and post-doctoral experience at Penn, Yale and MSRI in Berkeley. Dr. Atteson serves on the Board of Directors of the National Museum of Mathematics of the United States.
摘要：
In 1973, Black, Scholes and Merton developed the Black-Scholes model which demonstrates how to replicate an option by trading in the underlying stock, for which they later won the Nobel prize. The use of this formula grew in industry until the extreme market crash of 1987 when practitioners realized that the statistical model behind Black-Scholes is inaccurate . Agreement on which market model best fits the market has never been reached. A different approach is to investigate alternative assets such as derivatives, whose replication is independent of the underlying model. The use of this approach also grew but, alas, failed during the global financial crisis due to market frictions and practitioners unwillingness to follow the math precisely. We will talk about the history of this approach and some recent results.
北大经院工作坊第821场
“平台与竞争”专题
数字经济工作坊
主讲人：
袁哲（浙江大学经济学院百人计划研究员）
周晓岚（山东大学经济学院教授）
李晨杨（香港科技大学助理教授）
袁晗（上海财经大学商学院助理教授）
主持人：（北大经院）李博
参与老师：韩若冰（香港中文大学助理教授），吴祁（北京大学助理教授），曹光宇（北京大学助理教授），罗茸（中国人民大学副教授）
时间：2024年3月9日(周六)9:00-17:00
地点：北京大学经济学院101会议室
【一】Platform Information Provision and Consumer Search: A Field Experiment
个人简介：
袁哲，浙江大学经济学院百人计划研究员。袁哲毕业于北京大学（本科）和多伦多大学（博士）。主要研究领域产业经济与平台经济，聚焦于数据资产价值、算法与人工智能的经济影响、平台治理，网络经济方面的实证研究。他的论文发表于American Economic Journal-Microeconomics, Management Science，Information Systems Research等国际顶尖刊物。他主持国家青年自科项目，参与多项国家自科重大和重大专项项目。他曾获得包括2023年留美经济学会“邹至庄最佳论文奖”，2016年欧洲产业经济学会青年经济学家最佳论文奖在内的多个奖项。
摘要：
Despite substantial efforts to help consumers search in more intuitive ways, text search remains the predominant tool for product discovery online. In this paper, we explore the effects of visual and textual cues for search refinement on consumer search and purchasing behavior. We collaborate with one of the largest e-commerce platforms in China and study its roll out of a new search tool. When a customer searches for a general term (e.g., “headphones”), the tool suggests refined queries (e.g., “bluetooth headphones” or “noise-canceling headphones”) with the help of images and texts. The search tool was rolled out with a long-run experiment, which allows us to measure its short-run and long-run effects. We find that, although there was no immediate effect on orders or total expenditures, the search tool changed customers’ search and purchasing behavior in the long-run. Customers with access to the new tool eventually increased orders and expenditures compared to those in the control group, especially for non top-selling products. The purchase increase comes from more effective searches, rather than an increase in activity on the platform. We also find that the effect is not only driven by the direct value of suggested searches, but also by customers indirectly learning to perform more effective searches on their own.
【二】Proportional vs. Unit Pricing: Evidence from on Alibaba’s Digital Food Delivery Platform
个人简介：
周晓岚，山东大学经济学院教授，获耶鲁大学经济学博士学位、武汉大学经济与数学双学士学位。她的主要研究领域是产业组织经济学、微观经济学、国际贸易。她的研究成果发表于The Rand Journal of Economics，International Economic Review等。
摘要：
Using granular geospatial data from Alibaba’s digital food delivery platform in the PRC, we compare the effectiveness of proportional vs. unit pricing in the cooked food sector only, or in the fresh food sector only, or both sectors. We build a structural model to analyze the discount pricing strategies of a platform, incorporating shop price competition, intertemporal demand spillover effect at the platform level, and cross-group network effects (CNEs) of shops and riders on consumers. We find positive intertemporal demand spillover effects at platform level. The cooked food and fresh food sectors are static substitutes but dynamic complements to each other. The CNEs of shops on consumers and delivery riders on consumers are positives and the same-side network effects (SNEs) of shops on other shops are negative, but the magnitudes are much larger for shops with higher net gross merchandise volume (GMV) in cooked food sector. Setting a higher standard for entry could be beneficial for a platform. From the perspectives of both extensive margin and intensive margin, a unit price discount on the fresh food sector only is likely to be most efficient for a platform to expand its market size and boost the total net GMV. Furthermore, a unit price discount on the fresh food sector only is also likely to be most efficient for a socially-concerned platform.
【三】Stores Going Online: Market Expansion or Cannibalization?
个人简介：
Dr. Chenyang Li is an assistant professor at Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (GZ), Innovation Policy and Entrepreneurship Thrust (department). His research encompasses both economic theory and empirical projects. In his theory papers, he delves into understanding how communication network structures influence the success of group collective action. The implications of his research findings extend to various fields, including firm management and anti-corruption. In addition, his other empirical projects are focused on the digital economy, pricing strategy on online platforms, and the interaction between online and offline businesses. He is committed to generating new insights that can benefit both the academic community and the industry at large.
摘要：
With the continual growth of e-commerce, many brands have opened up online sales channel alongside with their traditional brick-and-mortar (B&M) stores. Consumers usually incur lower shopping costs from purchasing online, so the presence of an online store tend to cannibalize sales of the corresponding B&M store. However, online sales may expand the market for the B&M store by increasing consumer awareness of the brand and transmitting product information. We use a unique dataset of 308 B&M stores matched with their online stores on Taobao to investigate the two counterveiling effects. We utilize rainy days and Covid outbreaks as offline-exclusive demand shocks to identify the (negative) cannibalization effect of online sales on B&M stores. We use Taobao live streaming and Double-11 shopping festival as online-exclusive demand shocks to identify the (positive) informative effect. Our findings reveal that categories of home, clothing, cosmetics, and jewelry suffer the most from the opening of online stores, while amusement and personal care stores are not affected. We also find that local stores experience both large negative and small positive effects. Based on survey data, we find the discounted price difference, online store quality and consumer online shopping habits are the main mechanisms behind these heterogeneous results. Our study unveil the complex relationship between online and offline sales and offer insights into the strategies and operations of store managers and shopping malls in the digital age.
【四】Competing for Time: A Study of Mobile Applications
个人简介：
袁晗，上海财经大学商学院助理教授，亚利桑那大学经济学博士。主要研究领域为实证产业组织和量化营销，研究问题涉及移动应用市场，创意产业等，论文发表于China Economic Review，《经济管理学刊》等。
摘要：
Apps compete for limited user time regardless of their functions. I develop a discrete-continuous demand model with a binding time constraint. I estimate the model on three pairs of apps (including substitutes and complements) with joint app usage in China. I use updates to disentangle complementarity from correlated preferences. I decompose competition into functional competition and budget competition, the latter of which captures the effects of a binding time constraint. Budget competition can dominate functional competition and a merger of complements can hurt consumers. A descriptive index is proposed to gauge budget competition.
供稿：科研与博士后办公室
美编：薏米、初夏
责编：度量、雨禾、雨田
