北大经院工作坊第972场
Lumpy Innovation and the Great Twins: Great Moderation and Great Recession（团状创新与“双胞胎”：大缓和与大衰退）
宏观经济学工作坊
主讲人：Donghai Zhang (Assistant Professor at the National University of Singapore)
主持老师：（北大经院）韩晗
参与老师：
（北大国发院）赵波、余昌华、李明浩
（北大经院）陈仪、李博、李伦
时间：2024年10月31日（周四）14:00-15:30
地点：北京大学国家发展研究院承泽园132教室
主讲人简介：
Dr. Donghai Zhang is an Assistant Professor at the National University of Singapore. He earned his Ph.D. from the Universitat Pompeu Fabra in 2018. His research interests include Macroeconomics, Monetary Economics, Time Series Econometrics, and Financial Economics. Donghai's research has appeared in the Journal of Monetary Economics, the Journal of the European Economic Association, and the Economic Journal. His research has been funded by the Social Science Research Council of Singapore and the German Research Foundation.
摘要：
We document that firm-level innovation decisions are lumpy, characterized by episodes of inaction and large increases in R&D expenses. Furthermore, the share of firms making spike adjustments in their R&D expenses is pro-cyclical and explains 75% of the pro-cyclicality of aggregate R&D. Motivated by these empirical findings, we develop a medium-run business cycle model with heterogeneous innovating firms and fixed adjustment costs, featuring lumpy innovation. Through this framework, we uncover a novel mechanism underpinning the ‘Great Twins’ hypothesis: the Great Moderation–marked by diminished economic volatility up to 2008–causally intensified the severity of the subsequent Great Recession. We provide micro- and macro-level evidence supporting this hypothesis. Finally, we explore the policy implications, including a new tail-risk and variance tradeoff for central banks.
北大经院工作坊第973场
Weak Monotone Comparative Statics
微观理论经济学工作坊
主讲人：Jinwoo Kim（Professor of Economics at Seoul National University）
主持老师：
（北大经院）吴泽南、石凡奇
（北大国发院）胡岠
参与老师：
（北大经院）胡涛
（北大国发院）汪浩、邢亦青
（北大光华）翁翕、刘烁
时间：2024年10月31日（周四）10:30-12:00
地点：北京大学经济学院302会议室
主讲人简介：
Jinwoo Kim is a Professor of Economics at Seoul National University, where he has served since 2016. He earned his Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Wisconsin-Madison in 2003, following his M.A. and B.A. in Economics from Seoul National University. His research focuses on auction theory, market design, and game theory, with numerous publications in prestigious journals such as Econometrica, American Economic Review, Review of Economic Studies, and the Journal of Economic Theory. Dr. Kim currently serves as an Associate Editor for the Review of Economic Design and as the Local Chair for the 2025 Econometric Society World Congress to be held in Seoul.
摘要：
We develop a theory of monotone comparative statics based on weak set order—referred to as weak monotone comparative statics—and identify the enabling conditions. We apply this framework to analyze Pareto optimal choices for coalitions of agents, Nash equilibria and its refinements in games, and stable matchings in matching theory. Compared to the existing theory based on strong set order, the conditions for weak monotone comparative statics are significantly weaker in terms of the structure of choice environments and the underlying preferences of agents.
北大经院工作坊第974场
A Small Fish in a Big Pond? The Long-Term Consequences of Marginal Enrollment in Elite Universities
发展与公共财政工作坊
主讲人：陈祎（上海科技大学创业与管理学院副教授）
参与老师：
（北大经院）刘冲、吴群锋、曹光宇、年永威
（北大国发院）李力行、席天扬、徐化愚、于航、王轩、易君健、黄清扬
（北大光华）张晓波、仇心诚
时间：2024年11月1日（周五）10:30-12:00
地点：北京大学国家发展研究院承泽园245教室
主讲人简介：
陈祎，上海科技大学创业与管理学院副教授；2010年本科毕业于北京大学经济学院，随后赴美国加州大学洛杉矶分校深造，2015年获得经济学博士学位。其主要研究领域包括劳动经济学、人口经济学和发展经济学。他目前担任国际劳动组织(GLO)会士和人口经济学旗舰期刊Journal of Population Economic副主编。他的研究发表于American Economic Review、International Economic Review、Journal of Development Economic等国内外权威学术期刊。他主持国家自然科学基金青年项目和优秀青年项目，曾荣获教育部第九届高等学校科学研究优秀成果奖和上海市第十六届哲学社会科学优秀成果奖。
摘要：
Enrolling in an elite university can have significant life consequences. However, the conventional wisdom that estimating the effect of elite school enrollment while holding everything else constant is of limited value from an individual perspective. Marginal enrollees often have to make trade-offs for the sake of attending a better university, including choosing weaker majors or smaller cities, which may offset the labor market benefits of attending of an elite university. By linking administrative records of college entrance exam takers in China with their bank card transaction data a decade later, we aim to understand the long-term consequences of elite university enrollment using a regression-discontinuity design. We find that individuals who barely pass the cutoff scores for elite universities are 42% more likely to attend them. However, they spend significantly less on real estate purchases (arguably the most important indicator of lifetime wealth in China) and do not spend more in other categories, suggesting that marginal enrollees are financially worse off. We identify three potential explanations for this counterintuitive outcome: (1) marginal enrollees perform worse academically compared to their peers; (2) they tend to choose weaker majors within the universities; and (3) the universities are often located in less desirable areas with fewer job opportunities.
北大经院工作坊第975场
Extreme Heat and Health Insurance Demand
计量、金融和大数据分析工作坊
主讲人：陈嫣然（首都经济贸易大学经济学院讲师）
主持老师：（北大经院）王熙
参与老师：
（北大经院）王一鸣、王法、刘蕴霆
（北大国发院）黄卓、张俊妮
（北大新结构）胡博
时间：2024年11月1日（周五） 10:00-11:30
地点：北京大学经济学院107会议室
主讲人简介：
陈嫣然，首都经济贸易大学经济学院讲师，硕士生导师，经济系副主任。北京大学经济学院博士毕业生，美国耶鲁大学联合培养博士生，北京大学-芝加哥大学联合暑期学校课程讲师。主要研究方向为健康经济学、环境经济学和劳动经济学，多篇研究成果发表于Environment and Development Economics、Social Science Medicine- Population Health、《世界经济文汇》、《劳动经济研究》等国内外期刊，出版学术专著1部，主持一项国家自然科学基金青年项目。
摘要：
Climate change and its associated extreme temperature events threaten the health of humankind. We investigate the impact of extreme temperatures on health insurance decisions using a proprietary dataset comprised of critical illness insurance records combined with long-term, daily meteorological information. We find that extreme heat increases the purchase of health insurance, as the associated abnormal heat acts as the salience effects. Adaptive behaviors including using air conditioning mitigate the identified effect of extreme heat, while contemporaneous air pollution strengthens it. Individuals and small businesses, the elderly, the female and outdoor workers are more sensitive to extreme heat than others. This paper is original in that i) we identify the impacts of extreme temperatures into extreme heat (measured in absolute temperatures) and abnormal heat, and attempt to estimate and define thresholds for extreme temperatures; ii) we show that the impact of abnormal heat as the salience effects and consequently increase health insurance purchase from its behavioral impacts.
北大经院学术午餐会
第194期
资产价格、信贷配置与宏观审慎监管：基于银行贷款数据的实证分析
主讲人：朱菲菲（中央财经大学金融学院副教授）
主持老师：高明（北京大学经济学院长聘副教授）
时间：2024年11月1日（周五）12:30-14:00
地点：北京大学经济学院107会议室
主讲人简介：
朱菲菲，中央财经大学金融学院副教授。北京大学光华管理学院经济学博士，东北财经大学金融学学士、硕士，芝加哥大学布斯商学院访问学者。主要研究领域为商业银行、公司金融和创新创业，在《经济研究》《管理世界》《经济学（季刊）》《金融研究》和Journal of Financial Markets等学术期刊发表论文20余篇。主持国家自然科学基金青年项目1项，参与国家自然科学基金面上项目、国家社会科学基金项目、教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目等多项。曾荣获北京高校第十三届青年教师教学基本功比赛一等奖。
摘要：
在我国以银行为主导的金融体系中，房地产价格作为最重要的资产价格之一，其价格变动会对信贷配置和金融稳定产生重大影响。本文基于中国某股份制银行2010-2021年的逐笔贷款数据，系统考察了资产价格变动对银行信贷配置和金融风险的影响。研究发现：房价上升显著推动了银行对企业的信贷供给，且抵押品渠道在其中发挥着重要作用；与基于西方数据的研究不同，本文未发现房价上升对非房地产企业贷款有显著的挤出效应，反而存在挤入效应。可能的原因在于，中国影子银行体系下，非房地产企业扮演着房企从银行获得资金的中介，房价上涨通过抵押品效应提升了非房企贷款的可得性。异质性分析表明，企业资金实力、地区经济制度和市场环境差异以及信贷政策松紧等因素均对房价变动时银行信贷行为具有显著影响。值得注意的是，宏观审慎监管政策收紧的背景下，影子银行模式和银行高度依赖抵押品的信贷模式增加了其脆弱性，尤其是在资管新规实施后，前期对房地产行业信贷扩张较快的分行，其资产质量恶化更加明显。本文的研究为防范系统性金融风险、加快构建房地产行业新模式以及促进中国经济高质量发展均具有重要启示。
供稿：科研与博士后办公室
美编：芋圆
责编：度量、雨禾、雨田
