北大经院工作坊第992场
The Dynamics of Agricultural Productivity Gaps（农业生产力差距的动态）
宏观经济学工作坊
主讲人：Xiao Ma (Peking University HSBC Business School)
主持老师：（北大经院）韩晗
参与老师：
（北大经院）陈仪、李博、李伦
（北大国发院）赵波、余昌华、李明浩
时间：2024年11月21日（周四）14:00-15:30
地点：北京大学国家发展研究院承泽园344教室
主讲人简介：
Xiao Ma received his Ph.D. in Economics from University of California, San Diego in 2021. He is currently an assistant professor at Peking University HSBC Business School. His work mainly focuses on international trade, macroeconomics, and economic development. He has published in journals such as Economic Research Journal (Chinese), International Economic Review, Journal of International Economics, Journal of Political Economy Macroeconomics, and Review of Economics and Statistics.
摘要：
This paper documents that agricultural productivity gaps have not declined on average over the last three decades despite global reductions in agriculture's share of aggregate employment. Moreover, the dynamics of agricultural productivity gaps have been highly heterogeneous across countries, with significant increases in some large economies, like China and India. To explain these patterns we build a quantitative multi-sector model with imperfect mobility of labor across sectors, frictional international trade, and uneven growth of relative prices and real productivity levels across countries and sectors. Agricultural productivity gaps rise in the model whenever aggregate income levels or real productivity in the non-agriculture sector rises sufficiently fast relative to movements of workers out of agriculture. We estimate the model to match time series patterns of exports by sector and country, among other statistics, which help discipline the model's real sectoral productivity growth rates. Quantitatively, the model does well in accounting for the dynamics of productivity gaps across countries. Consistent with the model's predictions, previous exports by sector are strong predictors of agricultural productivity gaps in the current cross-section of countries, in line with the view that the gaps reflect real economic factors rather than mismeasurement.
北大经院工作坊第993场
Designing Interim Deadlines for Time-Inconsistent Agents
微观理论经济学工作坊
主讲人：高步渠（湖南大学经济与贸易学院助理教授）
主持老师：
（北大经院）吴泽南、石凡奇
（北大国发院）胡岠
参与老师：
（北大经院）胡涛
（北大国发院）汪浩、邢亦青
（北大光华）翁翕、刘烁
时间：2024年11月21日（周四）10:30-12:00
地点：北京大学经济学院302会议室
主讲人简介：
高步渠，湖南大学经济与贸易学院助理教授，博士毕业于波士顿大学经济学专业，研究领域为产业组织、行为经济学、应用微观理论，主要关注市场与组织内部的合约设计，研究成果发表于Management Science.
摘要：
In many real-life situations, people need to complete a divisible task over a fixed time horizon. There are two prominent features in task management. First, people are subject to productivity shocks, which requires flexibility in intertemporal workload allocation. Second, people are prone to procrastination and demand commitment devices. In a principal-agent setting, we study the optimal design of interim deadlines that trade off the demand for flexibility and commitment. We show that the profit-maximizing contract may entail fewer interim deadlines for the time-inconsistent agent than for the time-consistent agent. Moreover, relative to the welfare-maximizing contract, the profit-maximizing contract may give more autonomy to the agent.
北大经院工作坊第994场
Does Unconventional Monetary and Fiscal Policy Contribute to the COVID Inflation Surge?
计量、金融和大数据分析工作坊
主讲人：张际（清华大学五道口金融学院副教授）
主持老师：（北大经院）王熙
参与老师：
（北大经院）王一鸣、王法、刘蕴霆
（北大国发院）黄卓、张俊妮
（北大新结构）胡博
时间：2024年11月22日（周五）10:00-11:30
地点：北京大学经济学院301会议室
主讲人简介：
张际博士现任清华大学五道口金融学院副教授，于2013年获得美国加利福尼亚大学圣地亚哥分校经济学博士学位；2008年获得上海财经大学经济学硕士学位。张际博士主要的研究领域包括宏观经济学、货币政策、财政政策和失业理论，论文发表在 Journal of Monetary Economics, Review of Economics and Statistics, Journal of International Economics 等国际一流期刊上。
摘要：
We assess whether unconventional monetary and fiscal policy implemented in response to the COVID-19 pandemic contribute to the 2021-2023 inflation surge through the lens of several different empirical methodologies—event studies, vector autoregressions, and regional panel regressions using granular data—and establish a null result. The key economic mechanism works through a disinflationary channel in the Phillips curve while monetary and fiscal stimuli put positive pressure on inflation through the usual demand channel. We illustrate this negative supply-side channel both theoretically and empirically.
北大经院学术午餐会第197期
The Impact of Robots on College Enrollment in China: A Perspective on Employment Polarization
主讲人：周广肃（中国人民大学教授）
主持老师：高明（北京大学经济学院长聘副教授）
时间：2024年11月22日（周五）12:30-14:00
地点：北京大学经济学院107会议室
主讲人简介：
周广肃现任中国人民大学中国就业与民生研究院副院长、劳动人事学院教授、吴玉章青年学者，长期致力于劳动力市场、收入分配和数字经济等相关领域的研究。他曾在《经济研究》《管理世界》和Journal of Regional Science、Strategic Entrepreneurship Journal等中英文刊物发表论文近50篇，主编教材1部，参与撰写学术专著5部，主持相关研究领域的省部级以上课题3项，并曾获得全国优秀财政理论研究成果二等奖、刘诗白经济学奖、《经济学》（季刊）最佳论文奖等奖项。
摘要：
China has experienced a boom in the adoption of industrial robots in the past decade, promoting the industrial productivity significantly. Many studies have begun to focus on the potential effects of robots on Chinese labor market, especially the substitution effect on routine jobs and the creation effect on high-skilled jobs. Most of these studies have found the heterogeneous effects of industrial robots among different educated or skilled workers, however, no one further explores the impact on the social demand for higher education. This paper is the first to investigate the impact of industrial robots on high school and college enrollment in China. We find that the spread of industrial robots has significantly increased the college enrollment rate, while has no effect on high school enrollment. The increase in the wage premium for a college degree due to robotization is the main reason for the increase in college enrollment. We also show that, the penetration of industrial robots even changes household educational investment decisions for the next generation, with parents willing to invest more money and time on their children’s education.
供稿：科研与博士后办公室
美编：芋圆
责编：度量、雨禾、雨田
