北大经院工作坊第1005场
Trade Liberalization and Firms' Corruption Engagement: Theory and Evidence from China
国际经济学与实证产业组织工作坊
主讲人：宋戈（厦门大学经济学院、王亚南经济研究院助理教授）
主持老师：（北大经院）莫家伟
参与老师：
（北大经院）杨汝岱、田巍、刘政文、吴群锋
（北大新结构）王歆、徐铭梽
（北大国发院）薛思帆
时间：2024年12月5日（周四）10:00-11:30
地点：北京大学经济学院305会议室
主讲人简介：
宋戈，厦门大学经济学院、王亚南经济研究院助理教授，博士毕业于科罗拉多大学博尔德分校，主要研究领域是国际贸易、经济地理、产业组织。
摘要：
This paper studies the role of trade liberalization in shaping domestic corruption. I develop a model of trade with heterogeneous firms that features endogenous corruption and export participation decisions. In the model, firms face a trade-off between engaging in corruption, thereby obtaining higher profits in the domestic market, or preserving their non-corrupt status in foreign markets to obtain higher export profits. In equilibrium, there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between firm productivity/size and corruption engagement. This prediction is confirmed in firm-level and aggregate data on international trade. I then calibrate the model to China and evaluate the extent to which trade policy is an effective tool for fighting domestic corruption. My findings suggest that (i) the share of firms that are “missing from trade” due to domestic corruption is 1%; (ii) conditional on the same reduction in the level of domestic corruption, trade liberalization is preferable to direct anti-corruption campaigns in terms of the associated gains in consumer welfare.
北大经院工作坊第1006场
Utilising Investor Behaviour on Shanghai's Early Stock Exchanges to Measure Institutional Quality in Late-Imperial and Republican China
经济史工作坊
主讲人：Jamesdaniel Harris（Visiting Fellow, University of Tokyo）
主持老师：（北大经院）赵一泠
参与老师：
（北大经院）管汉晖、周建波
（北大光华）颜色、李波
（清华大学）徐志浩
时间：2024年12月5日（周四）12:00-13:30
地点：北京大学经济学院302会议室
主讲人简介：
Jamesdaniel Harris received his BA in Economics, and in Political Science, summa cum laude, from Cornell University. Returning to academia after a career in the financial industry, Dr. Harris received his Doctorate in Economic History from the London School of Economics. He is the author of the forthcoming book, Shanghai's Early Sovereign Debt Markets: A Quantitative Financial History (London: Palsgrave-Macmillan, 2025). His current research topics include a data-based financial history of Shanghai's early equity markets, analysis of private property rights institutions in Republican China, and game theoretic approaches to analysing costly effort provision.
摘要：
Whether institutional quality during the late-Qing and republican eras should be regarded as exceptionally weak or relatively strong has remained an open question within economic history, with both views (weak: Ma 2011, Chen 2012, Leung 2023,Wang et al 2024; strong: Strauss 2004, Bian 2005, Zanasi 2006, Huang 2001, Bin Wong 2009, von Glahn 2016) receiving support. The inherently imprecise definition of institutional quality, as well as the inherently difficult nature of standard historical research, which typically relies on modern-period researchers "looking backwards" at often incomplete or poor-quality historical evidence, both lead to a continuing debate in the literature. In this paper, we avoid these methodological issues by observing contemporaneous investor revealed preferences to analyse contemporaneous views on domestic institutional quality. We construct an extensive financial dataset including (i) municipal bond prices, (ii) equity share prices, and (iii) dividend payout rates, containing comparative data on domestic Chinese and extraterritorial government and private securities. Late-Qing/republican Shanghai's unique institutional environment allows us to interpret contemporaneous investor behaviour as indicative of views on the relative strength of domestic institutional quality.
北大经院工作坊第1007场
The Global Change in Corporate Production Function
计量、金融和大数据分析工作坊
主讲人：李学楠（长江商学院金融学教授）
主持老师：（北大经院）王熙
参与老师： （北大经院）王一鸣、王法、刘蕴霆
时间：2024年12月6日（周五） 10:00-11:30
地点：北京大学经济学院301会议室
主讲人简介：
李学楠教授为长江商学院金融学教授、中国产业政策研究中心主任。李学楠教授的研究领域主要集中在资本结构、资产定价和宏观经济学领域。她的研究论文探讨了资产定价以及公司治理领域的前沿问题，提出了许多兼具创新性和实用性的理论观点和实践建议。研究论文多次发表在Review of Financial Studies, Journal of Financial Economics, Journal of Monetary Economics, Management Science等顶级学术杂志上，这些论文不仅具有很高的学术价值，同时也为金融行业的实践提供了重要的理论支持。李学楠教授于2017年和2023年两度获得长江商学院杰出研究奖。李学楠教授目前担任Journal of Empirical Finance, International Review of Finance 和Quarterly Journal of Economics and Management 学术期刊的副主编。
摘要：
The assumption of a concave production function has long been a cornerstone in economics literature. However, by applying Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to estimate the structural break, we uncover that since the 1980s, the corporate production function has evolved into a sigmoidal (convex-concave) form, with the convex portion becoming increasingly prominent over time. This structural change, evident across a wide range of countries and industries, quantitatively accounts for the rising share of firms with negative net earnings. Finally, we highlight the welfare implications of this transformation, including the impact of intensified competition and the potential advantages of shifting the tax base from net earnings to gross profits.
北大经院工作坊第1008场
A Story of Fire and Water:
Cryptocurrency, Nomad Miners, and Environmental Cost（水火之争：加密货币、游牧矿工与环境代价）
生态、环境与气候变化经济学工作坊
主讲人：袁野（北京大学经济学院助理教授）
主持老师：（北大经院）季曦
时间：2024年12月6日（周五）10:00-12:00
地点： 北京大学经济学院305会议室
主讲人简介：
袁野，北京大学经济学院经济学系助理教授。研究领域为健康经济学、发展经济学和环境经济学。主持国家自然科学基金青年项目。研究成果发表于Journal of Public Economics, Journal of Development Economics, Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Journal of Comparative Economics, Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization及China Economic Review等学术期刊上。
摘要：
Cryptocurrency mining has important environmental consequences. We document a robust seasonal migration pattern of Bitcoin mining activities in China that aligns with the country's monsoon seasons. Given the substantial electricity demands of Bitcoin mining, most miners operate in regions rich in coal-powered electricity. However, during the wet season, miners migrate to areas with abundant hydroelectric power to take advantage of lower electricity prices. As water scarcity drives up electricity prices in these regions during the dry season, miners return to coal-powered areas. This seasonal migration significantly increases air pollution emissions in coal-powered regions during the dry season, representing 20.8 percent of annual SO2 emissions in China. Each Bitcoin mined using coal-powered electricity increases SO2 levels by 8.1 μg/m3. Our findings highlight the severe environmental costs of cryptocurrency mining.
北大经院工作坊第1009场
Breaking the Curse of Dimensionality in Heterogeneous-Agent Models: A Deep Learning-Based Probabilistic Approach
数字经济工作坊
（新结构经济学研究院与经济学院）
主讲人：黄吉（香港中文大学助理教授）
时间：2024年12月6日(周五)10:00-11:30
线下地点：北京大学朗润园万众楼一层
线上形式：ZOOM会议
会议号: 994 5991 6531
密码: inse
主讲人简介：
Ji Huang is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Economics at the Chinese University of Hong Kong (CUHK). His research interests lie in banking and macro finance. His work has been published by leading academic journals, including Review of Finance and Journal of Economic Theory. Professor Huang received his Ph.D. in Economics from Princeton University in 2015.
摘要：
Dynamic heterogeneous-agent models share two features: 1) high-dimensional aggregate states that are beyond the control of individual agents, and 2) low-dimensional aggregate shocks. This paper exploits these two features using a deep learning-based probabilistic approach and demonstrates that it is possible to solve for the global solution of these models without compromising dimensionality reduction. The computational advantage of the probabilistic approach lies in converting a conditional expectation equation into multiple equations of shock realizations, significantly enhancing evaluation efficiency. As illustration, I solve two models: the continuous-time version of Krusell and Smith (1997) with a two-asset portfolio choice and nonlinear debt market clearing condition, and an extension of a search-and-matching model (Duffie, Garleanu and Pedersen, 2007) with a continuum of heterogeneous investors and anticipated aggregate risks.
北大经院学术午餐会
第199期
The Impact of Sanctions on International Trade: Evidence from CoCom's Export Control
主讲人：张博骁（中国人民大学应用经济学院讲师）
主持老师：高明（北京大学经济学院长聘副教授）
时间：2024年12月6日（周五）12:30-14:00
地点：北京大学经济学院107会议室
主讲人简介：
张博骁，中国人民大学应用经济学院讲师。他是北京大学经济学和历史学学士、北京大学经济学硕士，加州大学洛杉矶分校经济学博士。主要研究领域为中国工业建设、发展经济学、经济史。
摘要：
This paper examines the impact of export controls, a significant tool in international relations used to influence economic security, on global trade. From 1950-1994, 17 Western countries established the Coordinating Committee for Multilateral Export Controls (CoCom) and enforced export controls against targeted countries. Products related to high technologies, critical industrial equipment, and essential resources were included in the CoCom lists and prohibited from being exported to targeted countries. We digitized the CoCom lists and matched embargoed products to SITC classifications. With the novel dataset, we find that the export embargo significantly reduced the export of goods from CoCom countries to targeted countries. It also led to decreased exports from CoCom countries to other countries and a decline in exports from other countries to targeted countries. Furthermore, we find that the impact of export control policies varied across different periods and various countries. This variation can be attributed to the United States' policy targets.
供稿：科研与博士后办公室
美编：芋圆
责编：度量、雨禾、雨田
