北大经院工作坊第1104场
生产结构、收入分配与宏观效率：
一个马克思主义政治经济学的分析框架与经验研究
政治经济学工作坊
主讲人： 刘充（清华大学经济管理学院研究助理教授）
主持老师：（北大经院）张辉、方敏
时间：2025年5月22日（周四）15：00-18：00
地点：北京大学文史教学楼217教室
主讲人简介：
刘充，清华大学经济管理学院研究助理教授。于清华大学先后获得经济学学士（2019年）和博士（2024年）学位，在校期间曾获得清华大学特等奖学金（本科生）和国家奖学金（研究生）等荣誉，毕业后入选“紫荆学者”并赴剑桥大学开展博士后研究工作。
主要研究方向为数理政治经济学、中国特色社会主义政治经济学和中国经济。在《中国社会科学》《经济研究》等期刊发表论文，代表论文先后获得第五届刘诗白经济学奖和第八届兴华优秀论文奖，博士学位论文入选“当代经济学博士创新项目”。主持完成清华大学“未来学者”项目并获得第十届“挑战杯”首都大学生课外学术科技作品竞赛特等奖。
摘要：
现有文献对收入分配调整、经济结构变动和宏观效率提升三者之间的关系鲜有系统性研究。文章将马克思的再生产图式拓展为由固定资本、一般性生产资料、消费资料组成的“马克思—斯拉法”型三部类结构表，并利用中国1987—2015年的投入产出表，刻画投资驱动型增长下收入分配与宏观效率之间的关系。文章测算了中国经济的工资—利润曲线，再根据实际与潜在收入分配结构之间的偏离度，评价了中国宏观效率提升的空间。结果表明，利润率出现了下降的趋势，符合马克思的理论预测；利润率的下降主要归因于外延式增长方式下固定资本投资快速增长引起的资本有机构成提高；对宏观经济效率的分析表明，在传统增长方式之下，改善宏观经济效率的空间极为有限，必须转变经济发展方式，打造经济增长新动能。
北大经院工作坊第1105场
Perception of Risk and Bank Loans
风险、保险与不确定性经济学工作坊
主讲人：胡学峰（中国人民大学智慧治理学院讲师）
主持老师：
（人大财金）陈泽
（北大经院）贾若
（清华经管）冯润桓
参与老师：
（人大财金）魏丽
（北大经院）郑伟
时间：2025年5月22日（周四）10：00-11：30
线上形式：腾讯会议
会议号：699 393 329
线下地点：中国人民大学立德楼503教室
主讲人简介：
胡学峰，中国人民大学智慧治理学院讲师，毕业于中国人民大学财政金融学院金融学专业，获经济学博士学位，研究方向为行为金融、人工智能与金融发展。代表性研究论文发表在国内外知名期刊Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization等。
摘要：
Using a unique hand-collected major production accidents dataset, we find that bank loans are negatively associated with its’ exposure to MPA. Furthermore, risk-averse banks demonstrate higher sensitivity to MPA than other banks. The reduction effect on bank loans is amplified as the average exposure of bank branches to MPA increases. Consistent with the salience theory, banks’ response gradually weakens as the shock repeats. We also show that the lending rate increases after experiencing MPA, which corroborates the idea that banks demand higher risk compensation aftermath. Leveraging on a bank-firm pair dataset, we provide evidence that exposed banks reduce lending more pronounced to firms exposed to MPA, those with lower tangibility, or those located farther away. We rule out the possibility that the reducing effect is mainly driven by firms' suppressed demand or banks' reducing lending capacity. The findings are also not explained by banks’ expectations about firm growth. Overall, we interpret the findings as banks’ increased perception of risk stemming from exposure to MPAs.
北大经院工作坊第1106场
The Structure of Bayesian Stable Matchings
微观理论经济学工作坊
主讲人：虎高计（上海财经大学经济学院副教授）
主持老师：
（北大经院）吴泽南、石凡奇
（北大国发院）胡岠
参与老师：
（北大经院）胡涛
（北大国发院）汪浩、邢亦青
（北大光华）翁翕、刘烁
时间：2025年5月22日（周四）10:30-12:00
地点：北京大学经济学院302会议室
主讲人简介：
Gaoji Hu is an associate professor of economics (tenured) at Shanghai University of Finance and Economics. He holds a Ph.D. from the National University of Singapore. His research interests include matching/market design, mechanism design, information design, and revealed preference analysis. His work has been published in American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, Games and Economic Behavior, International Economic Review, Theoretical Economics, etc. He also serves as an Associate Editor for the Journal of Mathematical Economics.
摘要：
Stability is a central concept in matching theory, and the structure of the stable matching set has important welfare implications. This paper examines a Bayesian matching model that accommodates both complete and incomplete information. We first demonstrate how fundamental structural results---namely, the celebrated Lone Wolf Theorem and Lattice Theorem---may fail under incomplete information. We then identify natural conditions under which these results can be restored in the general setting. Our key condition, termed common information, encompasses complete information as a special case, thereby uncovering the informational assumption underlying the classic theorems. Furthermore, we analyze additional welfare properties of stable matchings related to these two theorems and extend our main results to the belief-free incomplete-information setting.
北大经院工作坊第1107场
Superstar Products by Superstar Exporters
国际经济学与实证产业组织工作坊
主讲人：薛思帆（北京大学国家发展研究院助理教授）
主持老师：（北大经院）莫家伟
参与老师：
（北大经院）杨汝岱、田巍、刘政文、吴群锋
（北大新结构）王歆、徐铭梽
时间：2025年5月23日（周五）10：00-11：30
地点：北京大学经济学院302会议室
主讲人简介：
薛思帆，北京大学国家发展研究院助理教授。2018年获复旦大学经济学院经济学学士学位，2024年获普林斯顿大学经济经济学博士学位。主要研究方向为国际贸易与宏观经济学。
摘要：
We document that larger exporters exhibit greater dispersion in product appeal, with their overall success disproportionately driven by a few “superstar” products. This reliance intensifies as trade costs decline, amplifying within-firm heterogeneity. Importantly, such dispersion arises primarily at the product entry stage rather than through post-entry growth. To account for these patterns, we develop a general equilibrium multiproduct trade model featuring endogenous product innovativeness. The model generates predictions that align closely with the empirical evidence, shedding light on how firm scale and trade frictions shape the anatomy of export performance.
北大经院工作坊第1108场
Paving Pathways of Migration: Evidence from India's Golden Quadrilateral Highway
发展与公共财政工作坊
主讲人：王赫（世界银行数字转型部研究组）
参与老师：
（北大经院）刘冲、吴群锋、曹光宇、年永威
（北大国发院）李力行、席天扬、徐化愚、于航、王轩、易君健、黄清扬
（北大光华）张晓波、仇心诚
时间：2025年5月23日（周五）11:00-12:00
地点：北京大学国家发展研究院承泽园229教室
主讲人简介：
王赫，北京大学国家发展研究院博士，现任职于世界银行数字转型部研究组（Analytics and Research Team, Digital Transformation）。研究方向为发展经济学，包括人口流动，营商环境，地方政府治理等。目前研究关注于人工智能及数字基础设施对劳动力市场和企业生产力影响。曾参与世界银行研究报告《世界发展报告2023：移民，难民与社会》和《数字化进程与趋势报告2025》等。文章发表于Journal of Development Economics; World Development; Journal of Government and Economics; Journal of Economics and Business;《经济学（季刊）》等期刊。
摘要：
How do large-scale infrastructure projects shape internal migration and labor mobility in developing countries? India’s Golden Quadrilateral (GQ) highway, with construction starting in 2001 and largely completed by 2006 to connect major economic hubs, provides a unique case to answer this question. Using 2001 and 2011 census data, this paper explores the causal link between reduced travel times and internal migration patterns. We begin by documenting how proximity to the GQ influenced migration rates using a difference-in-differences approach with instrumental variables, estimating a 17% increase in migration for corridors with destination and origin within 50 km to the GQ. Using a modified gravity model, we, then, establish the causal effects of travel time savings on migration flows. Notably, the effect varies by travel distance, as improved infrastructure disproportionately lowers barriers for longer-distance migration. Additional analysis explores demographic heterogeneity and finds that older and lower-educated workers benefit more from the reduced travel time. Overall, we estimate that excluding population growth, 32% of the total increase in migration flows between 2001 and 2011 is directly attributable to the GQ.
北大经院工作坊第1109场
Fetal Pollution Exposure, Cognitive Ability, and Gender-specific Parental Investment
生态、环境与气候变化经济学工作坊
主讲人：张欣（北京师范大学统计学院副教授）
主持老师：
（北大国发院）邢剑炜
（北大经院）季曦
时间：2025年5月23日（周五）10:30-12:00
地点： 北京大学国家发展研究院承泽园333教室
主讲人简介：
张欣，经济学博士，北京师范大学统计学院副教授，博士生导师。研究方向为环境经济学、健康经济学等。在Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 、Journal of Environmental Economics and Management、Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists、Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization、Journal of Population Economics、《经济学（季刊）》、《金融研究》等一流期刊发表过多篇论文。作为负责人曾先后主持国家自然科学基金面上项目、青年项目，中国博士后科学基金面上项目和特别资助项目等课题。担任国际期刊Economic Change and Restructuring联合主编（Co-Editor）。研究成果获第八届高等学校科学研究优秀成果奖（人文社会科学）三等奖。
摘要：
This paper examines the impact of fetal exposure to air pollution on low-stakes test performance across a broad age range, with a focus on gender-specific parental responses to this negative shock. Using data from a nationally representative survey in China, we find that fetal PM2.5 exposure significantly reduces cognitive ability in women, particularly those with brothers. Gender-biased human capital investment by families tends to amplify the harmful effects for girls, while diminishing these effects for boys. Specifically, when exposed to the same level of fetal PM2.5, females receive less homework assistance from their families and attain lower levels of education.
供稿：科研与博士后办公室
美编：闻听
责编：度量、雨禾、雨田
