北大经院工作坊第1150场
Market Contraction and Innovation Divergence: The Impact of the US-China Trade War on Chinese Innovation
发展与公共财政工作坊
主讲人：马啸（北京大学汇丰商学院助理教授）
参与老师：
（北大经院）刘冲、吴群锋、曹光宇、年永威
（北大国发院）李力行、席天扬、徐化愚、于航、王轩、易君健、黄清扬
（北大光华管理学院）张晓波、仇心诚
时间：2025年9月24日（周三）10:30-12:00
地点：北京大学国家发展研究院承泽园245教室
主讲人简介：
马啸，2021年获美国加州大学圣地亚哥分校经济学博士学位，现任北京大学汇丰商学院助理教授。其研究领域主要包括国际贸易、宏观经济学和经济发展，相关成果发表于American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics、International Economic Review、Journal of International Economics、Journal of Political Economy Macroeconomics和Review of Economics and Statistics等学术期刊，曾获国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目B类(优秀青年基金项目)资助。
摘要：
This paper studies the impact of the US import tariff on the intensity and direction of innovation in China during the trade-war. Empirically, we break down patent abstracts into technical terms through textual analysis, enabling a comparison of innovation directions between Chinese and US firms based on the similarity of these terms. We find that greater exposure to US import tariffs lowers similarity—especially with recent US patents—and reduces Chinese patent filings. To interpret these patterns, we build a heterogeneous firm model where firms endogenously allocate innovation effort across product features and make export decisions. Tariff shocks alter innovation by shifting export demand. Quantitatively, this demand channel explains 21% of the decline in China–US innovation similarity. Moreover, changes in innovation intensity and direction reduce Chinese exports by 3.3% by 2021, with shifts in innovation direction alone contributing 14% of the decline.
供稿单位：科研与博士后办公室
供稿人：刘冲 黄海
