《行业研究前沿》课程系列
2025年第1期
全球资产定价的新特征及其对宏观研究的启示
主讲人：郭磊（广发证券首席经济学家、董事总经理）
主持人：锁凌燕（北京大学经济学院教授）
时间：2025年10月14日（周二）18：40-20：30
地点：腾讯会议
主讲人简介：
郭磊，广发证券首席经济学家，董事总经理；北京大学经济学院金融硕士校外导师，清华大学全球证券市场研究院学术委员，新浪财经意见领袖专栏作家，中国证券业协会首席经济学家委员会委员，中国首席经济学家论坛理事；2017-2024年新财富宏观分析师第一名，新财富白金分析师。
主办单位：
北京大学经济学院
北京大学中国保险与社会保障研究中心
北京大学中国金融与投资研究中心
第182次北大塞瑟（CCISSR）双周讨论会
近些年医保政策变化及其可能影响
主讲人：陈旭（高济健康保险团队负责人）
主持老师：陈凯（北京大学经济学院副教授）
时间：2025年10月16日（周四）13：00-14：50
地点：北京大学第二教学楼408教室
主讲人简介：
陈旭，本科毕业于北京大学数学系，研究生毕业于清华大学数学系。2010年北美精算师（SOA）。现任高济健康保险团队负责人。之前曾在中再寿险，中怡保险经纪、复星健康险管理集团、镁信健康任职。对再保、经纪、药品相关保险等领域比较熟悉。在再保期间，主要负责上海区域大客户的开拓和维护，对各种风险再保、财务再保的模式都较为擅长。精通数据分析，曾负责中国首次意外险行业经验分析的数据分析部分并撰写报告。在中怡期间，开拓了在大陆的短期健康险再保经纪业务。在复星和镁信期间转向药品相关保险领域的探索，探索并拓展了创新支付、肿瘤复发险、慢病药品保险等相关领域。现在高济负责保险团队，带领团队从0到1建立了目前业内服务能力最强的互联网门诊险、慢病无优险团队，并在各种险司相关的健康服务产品设计、服务履约方面积极探索。
摘要：
通过此次交流，希望能让大家了解近些年医保改革的核心脉络、举措及其可能的影响。核心内容包括：带量采购的背景、模式及发展；DRGs和DIP的背景、核心逻辑以及对行业&个人的影响；商保创新药目录的简单介绍。最后进行一定的展望，探讨商业保险和医保的合作潜力。
主办单位：
北京大学中国保险与社会保障研究中心
北京大学经济学院风险管理与保险学系
北大经院工作坊第1161场
The Geopolitical Determinants of Economic Growth, 1960-2019（经济增长的地缘政治决定因素，1960-2019）
宏观经济学工作坊
主讲人：范天宇（Yale University）
主持老师：（北大经院）韩晗
参与老师：
（北大国发院）赵波、余昌华、李明浩
（北大经院）陈仪、李博、李伦
时间：2025年10月16日（周四）14:00-15:30
地点：北京大学国家发展研究院承泽园229教室
主讲人简介：
Tianyu Fan is a Ph.D candidate at Yale University. His research interests are at the intersection of macroeconomics, international trade, and economic development. Currently, he focuses on three interconnected areas: technological change and labor markets, geopolitics and geoeconomics, and unequal growth and development. Tianyu's research has appeared in Econometrica. His research has been funded by Ph.D. Dissertation Fellowship, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and the Stripe Economics of AI Fellowship.
摘要：
This paper establishes geopolitical relations as a first-order determinant of economic growth. We construct a novel event-based measure of bilateral geopolitical alignment by employing large language models with web search capabilities to analyze over 440,000 political events across 196 countries from 1960–2019. This comprehensive measure enables us to identify the precise timing and magnitude of geopolitical shifts within countries over time. Using local projections with country fixed effects, we find that a one-standarddeviation improvement in geopolitical relations increases GDP per capita by 10% realized in 15 years. These persistent effects operate through multiple reinforcing channels— enhanced political stability, increased investment, expanded trade, and productivity gains. Across our sample, geopolitical factors generate GDP variations ranging from −35% to +30%, with developing nations facing particularly severe penalties from international isolation. Our findings reveal how geopolitical alignment shapes economic prosperity in an increasingly fragmented global economy.
北大经院工作坊第1162场
Crisis, State Capacity, and the Rise of Autocracy: A Design-based Analysis of the Thirty Years’ War
经济史工作坊
主讲人：Matthias Weigand（Harvard University）
主持老师：（北大经院）赵一泠
参与老师：
（北大经院）郝煜、管汉晖、周建波
（北大光华）颜色、李波
（清华大学）徐志浩
（香港中文大学）Mark Hup
时间：2025年10月16日（周四）9:00-10:30
形式：腾讯会议
会议号：625-573-532
主讲人简介：
Matthias Weigand is a PhD Candidate in Economics at Harvard University, focusing on economic history and political economy. He has published in Econometrica. He is an affiliate of the Center for European Studies, the Center for History and Economics, the Institute for Quantitative Social Science, and the Weatherhead Center for International Affairs.
摘要：
Do wars enable autocracy? We examine how the Thirty Years’ War (1618–48), the largest conflict in pre-modern Europe, gave rise to capable autocracies. We use planned troop movements from secret military communications to estimate the impact of town-level war exposure on the growth of fiscal and military capacity and the dismantling of parliaments. During the war, executive power increased to prevent plunder and coordinate military logistics. After the war, rulers used this capacity to consolidate autocratic rule via propaganda and repression. Pre-existing legal institutions acted as a barrier to war-induced autocracy. With parliaments eliminated, militarized absolutist regimes persisted for centuries and provided fewer public goods. Our findings highlight a dynamic trade-off in the concentration of executive power during crises.
北大经院工作坊第1163场
Origin of Goods and Unequal Consumer Gains from Trade Liberalization
国际经济学与实证产业组织工作坊
主讲人：戴觅（北京师范大学经济与工商管理学院教授）
主持老师：（北大经院）莫家伟
参与老师：
（北大经院）杨汝岱、田巍、刘政文、吴群锋
（北大新结构）王歆、徐铭梽
（北大国发院）薛思帆
时间：2025年10月17日（周五）10：00-11：30
地点：北京大学经济学院305会议室
主讲人简介：
戴觅，北京师范大学经济与工商管理学院教授，博士生导师，国际经济与贸易系主任，入选国家级高层次青年人才。北京大学经济学博士，美国哥伦比亚大学、美联储纽约银行访问学者。主要研究方向为国际贸易与发展经济学。研究成果发表于Journal of International Economics, Journal of Development Economics, Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization、《管理世界》、《经济学（季刊）》、《世界经济》等国内外学术期刊。获教育部高校人文社会科学研究优秀成果奖、安子介国际贸易优秀论文奖、浦山世界经济学优秀论文奖、北京市高等教育教学成果奖、北京师范大学彭年杰出青年教师奖、陶大镛基金青年英才奖等科研和教学奖励。
摘要：
This paper estimates the impact of trade liberalization on the cost of living across income levels in a low-income country: Cambodia. We use a novel dataset on household consumption that distinguishes the origin of goods—imported, domestic, and home-produced—across finely disaggregated product categories. Lower tariffs reduce the cost of living directly through cheaper imported final goods and indirectly via lower costs of imported intermediate inputs. We find that tariff reductions generate a strong pro-rich effect: the cost of living for the top income decile declines about four times more than for the bottom decile. This disparity reflects richer households’ higher expenditure share on imported final goods and is amplified by their greater reliance on domestic goods that intensively use imported inputs. We argue that the higher import expenditure share among richer households is likely a common feature of low-income countries, and ignoring this heterogeneity will substantially underestimate the pro-rich effects of trade liberalization in such economies.
北大经院工作坊第1164场
Who Benefits from Surface Water Pollution Programs?
生态、环境与气候变化经济学工作坊
主讲人：任前平（香港科技大学（广州）助理教授）
主持老师：（北大经院）季曦
时间：2025年10月17日（周五）10:30-12:00
地点：北京大学经济学院302会议室
主讲人简介：
任前平是香港科技大学（广州）社会枢纽创新创业与公共政策学域助理教授。他于2025年获得加州大学圣克鲁兹分校经济学博士学位，并在加州大学伯克利分校交换学习一年。任前平的研究领域聚焦于环境与能源经济以及公共经济，主要集中在中国、美国和印度等国家。其论文发表于Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization等期刊。
摘要：
The Clean Water Act provides around 180 million dollars annually for non-point source pollution programs. We examine how state governments deploy these funds. We find that watersheds with wealthier and more white populations are less polluted but more likely to receive pollution project funding. Supporting analyses show that these disparities can be explained by spatial differences in local government capacity. Socioeconomically disadvantaged areas have fewer resources to compete for grants and constrained match funding for grant proposal requirements. Our findings suggest that a competitive application process is an inequitable way to determine environmental funding priorities and could amplify justice concerns.
供稿：科研与博士后办公室
美编：闻听
责编：度量、雨禾、雨田
