Policy Uncertainty and Financial Markets:The Chinese Silver Crisis During the Great Depression
（政策不确定性与金融市场：大萧条时期的中国白银危机）
主讲人：
赵留彦（北京大学经济学院院长助理、长聘副教授、研究员、博士生导师。研究领域为货币经济学和中国金融市场。研究成果发表在国内外著名学术期刊如 Journal of International Economics, Economic History Review,《中国社会科学》、《经济研究》等。讲授课程包括本科生时间序列分析、投资基金概论，研究生实证金融分析、金融计量学等。）
题目：
Policy Uncertainty and Financial Markets:The Chinese Silver Crisis During the Great Depression（政策不确定性与金融市场：大萧条时期的中国白银危机）
时间：
2022年3月3日周四
12:00-13:30
地点：
北京大学经济学院302会议室
摘要：
Based on novel hand-collected high-frequency financial data and newspaper sentiment data from historical sources, we provide the first investigation of the impact of policy uncertainty on China's cross-border capital flows and domestic credit supply during the Great Depression. We find that uncertainty regarding China’s commitment to the silver standard was pivotal to explain the Chinese silver crisis. In contrast to the literature, we find no evidence for rising global silver prices driving silver outflows. A contemporaneous comparison with Hong Kong suggests that without silver policy uncertainty, rising global silver prices would cause neither persistent silver outflows nor a credit crunch.
供稿单位：经济学院金融系
供稿人：孟令超
