The Regime-Switching Policy for the RMB（人民币汇率政策的模式转换）
主讲人：邱实（复旦大学经济学院讲师）
主持老师：（北大经院）王熙
参与老师：（北大经院）王一鸣、刘蕴霆、王法
（北大国发院）黄卓、张俊妮、孙振庭
（北大新结构）胡博
时间：2023年3月10日（周五） 10:00-11:30
地点（线下）：北京大学经济学院107会议室
报告摘要：
The RMB exchange rate policy follows a “two-pillar” rule, with the market pillar reflecting foreign exchange market conditions and the basket pillar stabilizing the RMB index. This documents a clear pattern of regime-switching in the policy coecients on the market pillar. We further find that macroeconomic variables, the intraday market condition as well as the news on trade conflict drive the regime-switching of policy coecients. In a Markov- switching rational expectations model, we demonstrate that regime-switching rules expand the set of policy combinations to guarantee the economy’s determinacy and to rule out self- fulfilling depreciation. A policy implication is that the regime change of the RMB policy rule, driven by di↵erent economic conditions, is a generalization of the counter-cyclical factor — a policy tool that the PBOC uses to stabilize the RMB exchange market.
主讲人简介：
邱实，复旦大学经济学院讲师，印第安纳大学布鲁明顿分校经济学博士(2019)。研究方向包括计量经济学，宏观计量，数量宏观和计算。
