各位老师，
您们好。北京大学经济学院本学期第四次学术午餐会定于2009年4月17日（周五）12:00-13:30举行，欢迎大家到时参加。午餐会上将会为到场听众准备便餐。希望在会上用餐的老师请发邮件给王莎莎订餐 （ shaltong@vip.sina.com）。（小提示：为了避免浪费，会上所提供的餐食严格按照之前预定的份数提供。因此请有意用餐的老师务必事先预定。多谢合作！）
本次午餐会详细信息如下。另附上前一次午餐会之简报。
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时间：2009年4月17日（周五），12:00-13:30
地点：北京大学经济学院大会议室（法学楼4层）
主讲人：Matthew Pollard (澳大利亚国立大学博士生)
题目：Was the United States Lucky? The Distribution of Global Equity Premia
工作语言：英文
内容摘要：
The equity premium puzzle in US stocks is resolved by a simple model for luck across countries. The observed premium of the US and other successful countries are positively biased since they are implicitly conditioned on being the largest observations over a period of history. After correcting for sample selection bias, the observed US equity premium is consistent with an exante premium of zero. A simple model is used where the return on every global market has equal mean and variance, and equal ex-ante equity premium of zero. It is tested against long term equity returns for 39 countries over 50 years. The model correctly predicts the winning country`s ex-post premia and Sharpe ratio with US values; the distribution of all countries expost premia and the distribution of market capitalizations. This suggests the US premium is signicantly lower than long-term historical estimates and luck is a sucient explanation for long-term dierences in countries equity markets.
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文章原文及演示幻灯片
