“经济学论坛”是由北京大学经济学院经济学系主办的专业学术性论坛。论坛致力于打造一个经济学专业人士进行交流与对话的平台，对当前及未来的经济理论、研究方法和现实热点问题展开广泛、深入、全面、开放的探讨。论坛每月举办一次，由主题演讲、专业评论和自由讨论构成。论坛邀经济学各领域素有研究的知名学者或研究取得积极进展的中青年学者发表主题演讲，并围绕相关问题展开讨论。本期论坛信息如下：
题 目：Business Cycle during Structural Change
报告人: 赵波，北京大学国家发展研究院助理教授
时 间：2018年5月25日（周五）12点30分至13点50分
地 点：经济学院302会议室
主持人: 叶静怡 教授
点评人: 陈仪 副教授
摘 要:
Business cycle fluctuations in countries undergoing structural transformation differ systematically from business cycles in industrialized countries: we document that countries with large declining agricultural sectors -- including China -- have aggregate employment fluctuations that are smooth and acyclical, while these countries experience volatile and procyclical reallocation of labor between agriculture and non-agriculture. We provide an unified theoretical framework for studying business cycle during structural change. The central aspect of the theory is the modernization of agriculture that occurs during the structural change: agriculture is becoming increasingly capital intensive and less labor intensive as a large traditional sector is crowded out. With a large traditional sector the expansion of manufacturing draws workers from traditional agriculture, ensuring smooth aggregate employment and large reallocation of workers between sectors. This process is driven by capital accumulation and differential productivity growth between agriculture and non-agriculture. We calibrate the model to China and show that the model is consistent both with China`s structural transformation and with the business cycle properties of China. Moreover, the model is consistent with the the changing business cycle properties as the economy goes from a poor economy with a large agricultural sector to a modern industrialized economy with negligible agricultural employment.
报告人简介:
赵波，国家发展研究院助理教授，毕业于复旦大学经济学院（硕士），挪威奥斯陆大学经济学系（博士），主要研究方向为定量宏观经济学、劳动经济学、房地产经济学，主要著作发表于Review of Economics Dynamics, Economic Theory, Economic Letters, 金融研究、经济学季刊等国内外杂志。
经济学院经济系
