“经济学论坛”是由北京大学经济学院经济学系主办的专业学术性论坛。论坛致力于打造一个经济学专业人士进行交流与对话的平台，对当前及未来的经济理论、研究方法和现实热点问题展开广泛、深入、全面、开放的探讨。论坛每月举办一次，由主题演讲、专业评论和自由讨论构成。论坛邀经济学各领域素有研究的知名学者或研究取得积极进展的中青年学者发表主题演讲，并围绕相关问题展开讨论。本期论坛信息如下：
题目：Political Groups and the Impact of Civil Wars on Local Economy in Early-Twentieth Century China
报告人：刘丛 上海财经大学助理教授
时 间：2016年9月23日（周五）12点30分至13点40分
地 点：经济学院302会议室
主持人：管汉晖 副教授
点评人：郝 煜 副教授
张亚光 副教授
Abstract:：
This paper examines the impact of civil wars on the local economy using newly documented information about civil wars across regions in early-twentieth century China. During this period, China was de facto divided into several regions. Each region was controlled by different warlords or political groups. Warlords fought with each other for a larger territory. I first quantitatively document the scale, timing, and location of these civil wars. Around sixty violent civil wars took place from 1911 to 1934 and 25% of the Chinese counties in my sample were involved in at least one battle. I then examine the impact of civil wars on local economic activities. I find that civil wars overall caused a small negative impact on international trade flows and a 12.1% drop in rural land values. When the results are separated into wars by political groups, the wars involving weak political groups led to 1.7% to 3.8% drop in international trade flows, while the ones by strong political groups had small positive impact on trade flows. Similarly, wars conducted by the powerful incumbent had no negative impact on land values, while the ones between the KMT and the CCP led to a 30% drop in land values. Combined with narrative evidence, the results suggest that incumbent or political groups might have protected trade or reduced harm to the local economy if they relied on tariff or land taxes to finance themselves.
北京大学经济学院经济学系
2016年9月19日
