编号：E-2025-12-6
题目：Winners and Losers: Firm and Labor Market Responses to China’s Coal Capacity Reduction Policy
作者：Run Ge , Jialin Huang , Xinzheng Shi , Wanqing Xu
联系方式：Xinzheng Shi, shixzh@pku.edu.cn
摘要：We examine the impact of China’s 2016 coal capacity reduction policy on the operational performance and production inputs of listed coal firms, as well as its broader effects on local labor markets and crime. The policy substantially improved the operational performance of listed coal firms—raising operating revenue and profits while reducing debt—but also reduced production inputs, including employment, total wages, and asset-related expenditures. These contractions at the firm level had wider labor market repercussions. Although overall employment in affected cities remained largely unchanged, residents’ annual incomes declined, concerns about unemployment intensified, and divorce rates increased. We further show that individuals in treated cities became less likely to work in mining and more likely to shift into wholesale and retail and real estate–related activities, helping explain why total employment did not fall despite job losses in coal-related sectors. The adverse labor market effects were most pronounced in cities with a relatively higher non-state-owned enterprise (non-SOE) share in mine closures and cutbacks. In contrast, cities with a higher SOE share experienced weaker effects, consistent with the fact that most resettlement funds were directed toward displaced SOE workers. Negative impacts were also concentrated among older and less-educated individuals. Moreover, the policy led to an increase in crime, particularly property-related offenses typically committed by individuals acting alone and resulting in relatively short prison sentences. Similar to the labor market effects, the rise in crime was concentrated in cities with a higher non-SOE share.
