北大经院学术午餐会
第213期
Local Government Big Financing and Firm Investment: Evidence from China’s Special-Purpose Bonds
主讲人：刘津宇（对外经济贸易大学中国金融学院教授）
主持老师：高明（北京大学经济学院长聘副教授）
时间：2026年10月16日（周五）10:30-12:00
地点：北京大学经济学院606会议室
主讲人简介：
刘津宇，对外经济贸易大学中国金融学院教授、博士生导师，入选国家级青年人才计划。2017年获得清华大学经济学博士学位。研究方向包括实证资产定价、中国债券市场等，研究成果发表于Journal of Finance、Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis、Review of Finance、Journal of Law and Economics和《管理世界》《金融研究》《世界经济》《中国工业经济》等期刊。曾获Dimensional Fund Advisors优秀论文奖、SFS Cavalcade固定收益最佳论文奖、中国金融国际年会（CICF）最佳论文奖等，撰写的三项金融案例入库全国金融教指委“中国金融专业学位案例中心案例库”。
摘要：
This paper studies how local government borrowing can become a catalyst rather than a constraint for private investment and reshape the spatial allocation of investment across regions. We develop a policy-guided, human-refined large language model classification procedure to examine China’s local government industry-supporting special-purpose (ISSP) bonds whose proceeds are explicitly earmarked for building local industrial capacity. We show that counties’ first adoption of ISSP bonds increases newly registered businesses by 0.1159 per 100 residents (575 additional businesses in an average county), and attracts 1.13 additional subsidiaries of nonlocal listed firms. The effects are concentrated in counties with stronger initial economic conditions, where ISSP financing fosters effective industrial agglomeration and expansion of industrial land supply. Further evidence shows that ISSP financing increases county-level GDP per capita by 3.78 percent and general public budget revenue per capita by 4.48 percent on average, with substantially higher implied output-to-bond and revenue-to-bond ratios in stronger initial economic conditions. Our findings suggest that local government borrowing can serve as a helping hand rather than a grabbing hand, and play a productive role beyond traditional fiscal financing.
北大经院工作坊第1335场
Ecological Macroeconomics: A New Paradigm towards North–South Dialogue
生态、环境与气候变化经济学工作坊
主讲人：Tiziano Distefano（Associate Professor of Economics at the University of Florence）
主持人：（北大经院）季曦
时间：2026年10月16日（周五）10:00-11:30
地点：北京大学经济学院302会议室
主讲人简介：
Tiziano Distefano is Associate Professor of Economics at the University of Florence and Director of the PhD Programme in Social Sciences for Sustainability and Wellbeing (S3W).
He serves as Chair of the First International Conference on Ecological Macroeconomics (ICEM2026) and of the related Summer School on Ecological Macroeconomics and the Global South (SSEM2026). He is currently Lead Editor of the forthcoming Handbook in Ecological Macroeconomics and edited the volume Water Resources and Economic Processes (Routledge, 2020).
He is Executive Guest Editor of the Special Issue “Ecological Macroeconomics: Exploring Alternative Futures” in Ecological Economics and previously served as Guest Editor of the Special Issue “Behavioural Ecological Economics” in the same journal.
He was Principal Investigator of the PRIN PNRR project MUST4Water and previously led the MIT–UNIPI MISTI Grant project EMERITUS. Since 2024, he has served on the Board of the International Society for Ecological Economics (ISEE). He also co-created the podcast “Back to the Future: Talks on Ecological Economics.”
His international experience includes visiting professorships and collaborations with universities and research networks in several Latin American and European countries and the US, beyond China.
摘要：
Ecological Macroeconomics is an emerging field that rethinks macroeconomic theory and policy by recognising the economy as a complex, evolving system embedded within the biosphere. Drawing on ecological economics, post-Keynesian economics, and complexity theory, it challenges the mechanistic and reductionist assumptions of conventional macroeconomics and opens new directions for integrated, ecologically grounded policy.
It then examines the core methodological tools — Stock-Flow Consistent models, system dynamics, and Multi-Regional Input-Output analysis — and their capacity to capture the interdependence of economic, social, and biophysical processes that conventional frameworks leave out.
A particular focus is placed on the North–South dimension: the recognition that ecological constraints, historical responsibilities, and development priorities differ fundamentally across countries, and that a credible ecological macroeconomic framework must reflect this heterogeneity.
The seminar concludes with a set of modelling applications from different national and regional contexts — including ITAGREEN for Italy, CHIMERA for China, and an environmentally extended input-output model for Colombia — illustrating how these tools can be adapted to structurally different economies and opening the ground for collaborative North–South research.
The field is consolidating rapidly: the Handbook of Ecological Macroeconomics is forthcoming, a special issue is almost out, and 2026 has seen both the first International Conference on Ecological Macroeconomics and a Summer School in Florence (ITA).
供稿：科研与博士后办公室
美编：初夏
责编：度量、雨禾、雨田
