北大经院工作坊第1353场
The Origins of the Nitrogen Revolution
经济史工作坊
主讲人：Christopher W. A. Sims（厦门大学经济学院助理教授）
主持老师：（北京大学）赵一泠
参与老师：
（北大经院）郝煜、管汉晖、周建波
（北大光华）颜色、李波
（清华大学）徐志浩
时间：2026年11月5日（周四）12:00-13:30
地点：北京大学经济学院606会议室
主讲人简介：
Christopher W. A. Sims (Northwestern Ph.D.) is an economic historian whose work examines the causes and consequences of technological change in 19th-century Britain and France. Research topics include the empirical study of “converging technologies” using evidence from the first commercial fertilizers, the impact of transportation and communication technologies on market integration, and innovation dynamics during the Industrial Revolution in France. He recently started a position as Assistant Professor in the School of Economics, WISE and Chow Institute at Xiamen University.
摘要：
Many technologies raise productivity in locations constrained by their natural endowments yet diminish specialization across space. We show that the first commercial nitrogen fertilizers in history were one such “converging” technology. Leveraging natural variation in soil nitrogen deficiency and the sudden introduction of Peruvian guano and nitrates to 19th-century England, we provide two main empirical findings. First, locations specialized on the basis of their natural endowments before the introduction of fertilizer: nitrogen-deficient places devoted less land to nitrogen-intensive crops. Second, combining newly-digitized data and a difference-in-differences design, we show that these nitrogen-deficient places substantially reallocated toward nitrogen-intensive crops after fertilizer was introduced, indicating convergence across space. To quantify the welfare impact of this “converging” technology, we embed fertilizer into a quantitative spatial model of the English agricultural sector with realistic geography. The welfare gains from fertilizer were equivalent to two decades of annual productivity growth in agriculture. However, convergence implies a reduction in the gains from trade, which offsets up to 10% of these welfare gains under plausible trade cost regimes.
北大经院工作坊第1354场
Designing Shortlists: The Brazilian Unified Public-Sector Hiring Mechanism
微观理论经济学工作坊
主讲人：Inácio Bó（澳门大学副教授）
主持老师：
（北大经院）石凡奇
（北大国发院）胡岠
（北大光华）王子伟
参与老师：
（北大经院）胡涛、周扬帆
（北大国发院）汪浩、邢亦青
（北大光华）翁翕、刘烁
时间：2026年11月5日（周四）13:15-14:30
地点：北京大学经济学院302会议室
主讲人简介：
Inácio Bó is an Associate Professor of Economics at the University of Macau and a Visiting Associate Professor at the Intelligence Economic Science Center at Southwestern University of Finance and Economics. He received his Ph.D. in Economics from Boston College in 2014. Previously, he held positions at the WZB Berlin Social Science Center, the University of York, and Southwestern University of Finance and Economics. His research interests include market design, matching theory, and behavioral and experimental economics. His work has been published in leading economics journals including The Economic Journal, American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, Management Science, and Games and Economic Behavior.
摘要：
Public-sector hiring commonly uses successive examinations to screen applicants, producing ranked lists for immediate appointments and future vacancies. Brazil’s Unified Public Service Examination combined recruitment for multiple jobs into one competition, allowing candidates to apply for several positions. This creates a new screening problem: a candidate shortlisted for one job may eventually take another she prefers, leaving the first job without enough eligible candidates. We describe the design of the Brazilian procedure, and develop a model of screening and assignment in such markets. We show how preliminary examination scores and candidates’ preferences can be used to coordinate job-specific cutoffs, identify the candidates who must be evaluated, and guarantee that vacancies can be filled despite uncertainty about final rankings. We also study how waitlists support subsequent hiring. The shortlisting approach was implemented in Brazil’s 2024 competition, with 2.14 million registered applicants for 6,640 positions.
北大经院工作坊第1355场
风险、保险与不确定性经济学工作坊
主讲人：
Daniël Linders（比利时鲁汶大学数学系副教授）
毛羽（对外经济贸易大学保险学院助理教授）
主持人：
（人大财金）胡文涛、陈泽
（北大经院）郑伟
（清华经管）冯润桓
参与老师：
（北大经院）贾若
（人大财金）魏丽、许荣、何林等
时间：2026年11月5日（周四）14:00-15:00
线上形式：腾讯会议，会议号：427 444 255
线下地点：中国人民大学通州校区西南学部楼102
本期主题1：S-comonotonicity, Pareto-optimal risk sharing and the generalized quantile risk-sharing rule
主讲人简介：
Daniël Linders，比利时鲁汶大学数学系副教授，鲁汶大学商科经济学博士。曾任荷兰阿姆斯特丹大学副教授、美国伊利诺伊大学厄巴纳—香槟分校助理教授。主要研究方向包括精算科学、金融风险管理、保险估值、风险度量及网络保险等。研究成果发表于Insurance: Mathematics and Economics、ASTIN Bulletin、Quantitative Finance等国际学术期刊。曾获国际精算师协会2024年Ragnar Norberg纪念奖及2026年Bob Alting von Geusau纪念奖。
摘要：
This paper studies risk-sharing problems when the pool of participants consists of protection seekers and protection providers. This means that not only losses are pooled, but also `insurance' cashflows are part of the pool. As a result, the random contributions the protection seekers pay to the pool and the random return the protection providers receive from the pool are determined ex-post such that the full allocation condition is satisfied. We introduce a generalized version of the quantile risk sharing rule such that it accommodates protection seekers and protection providers. Moreover, we also allow for participants to be active (having a random ex-post cashflow) or passive (having a deterministic ex-post cashflow). We show that this creates a framework that combines traditional insurance and risk-sharing mechanisms. We introduce the concept of S-comonotonicity and show how traditional comonotonicity results (convex upper bounds, decomposition formulas for stop-loss premiums and distorted expectations) can be generalized to S-comonotonicity. We show that S-comonotonicity, Pareto optimality and the generalized quantile risk sharing rule are describing the same class of allocations.
本期主题2：Measuring Herding: Realized and Implied Comonotonicity
主讲人简介：
毛羽，清华大学应用经济学博士，对外经济贸易大学保险学院助理教授，研究方向为公共风险的防控机制、保险科技，主持国家自然科学基金青年项目一项，已在Insurance: Mathematics and Economics、Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics、《保险研究》国内外核心期刊发表多篇文章。
摘要：
We examine the information value of the physical-minus-risk-neutral downside CIX wedge (CIXRP) for risky-portfolio selection. CIX measures standardized dependence relative to a comonotonic benchmark, while CIXRP captures the difference between downside dependence reflected in historical returns and that embedded in option prices. Using S&P 500 data, we investigate the relationship between CIXRP and the relative returns of Broad and Defensive portfolios. In our sample, lower historical percentiles of CIXRP are associated with higher subsequent Defensive-minus-Broad returns. We use CIXRP to construct a state-conditioned mapping of relative returns. To assess the investment value of this information, we jointly optimize portfolio selection and exposure within a constant proportion portfolio insurance (CPPI) framework, accounting for candidate-specific risk, transaction costs, and floor constraints. Using chronological calibration and held-out evaluation, the baseline results show that incorporating CIXRP produces higher returns and mean–variance values than both a joint strategy without CIXRP conditioning and fixed-composition CPPI strategies. Robustness tests varying transaction costs, multiplier bounds, risk aversion, rebalancing frequency, volatility updating, and product horizons consistently support the performance improvements across the settings considered.
北大经院工作坊第1356场
Kantorovich Meets Sargent:A New Perspective of Rational Expectations（康托罗维奇遇见萨金特：理性预期的新视角）
宏观经济学工作坊
主讲人：朱胜豪（对外经济贸易大学教授）
主持老师：（北大经院）韩晗
参与老师：
（北大国发院）赵波、余昌华、李明浩
（北大经院）陈仪、李博、李伦
时间：2026年11月6日（周五）10:00-11:30
地点：北京大学国家发展研究院承泽园217教室
主讲人简介：
朱胜豪，对外经济贸易大学教授，纽约大学经济学博士。在Econometrica, Journal of Economic Theory, International Economic Review等国际一流经济学期刊上发表数篇论文。学术成果在Google Scholar上被国际同行引用1200多次。朱胜豪的主要研究领域是宏观经济和收入分配。他目前的研究把动态博弈和群体智能应用于宏观经济政策设计中。正在主持一项国家自然科学基金原创探索计划项目。
摘要：
This paper formulates rational-expectations problems as optimal control problems for probability laws governed by a Kolmogorov–Fokker–Planck equation. Variations of policies and densities yield the household optimality system, while market clearing closes the evolution of endogenous prices and distributions. Optimal transport provides a geometric description of these dynamics in Wasserstein space, without requiring them to be gradient flows of an energy functional. The analysis develops benchmark household and general-equilibrium formulations, stationary laws and computational representations.
北大经院学术午餐会第215期
文化、企业空壳化与民间借贷风险
主讲人：张光利（中央财经大学商学院副教授）
主持老师：高明（北京大学经济学院长聘副教授）
时间：2026年11月6日（周五）10:30-12:00
地点：北京大学经济学院107会议室
主讲人简介：
张光利，中央财经大学商学院副教授、博士生导师，金融与财务管理系主任，中央财经大学数据管理研究中心主任，中央财经大学“菁英学者”，曾挂职担任中央财经大学教工部副部长。主要研究领域为公司金融、中国区域经济问题，在《经济研究》《金融研究》《世界经济》和Journal of Financial Research等国内外期刊发表论文40余篇。先后主持国家自然科学基金项目2项、教育部人文社会科学研究项目1项。
摘要：
民间借贷是正规金融体系之外的重要融资方式，但长期脱离系统性金融监管也致使其风险较为突出。本讲座从个体层面和企业组织层面，分别讨论了中国宗族文化和实体企业发展如何影响了民间借贷风险的产生。基于社会抵押理论的分析框架，我们发现宗族文化显著提升了本姓氏的违约水平，宗族文化提升了宗族网络内部的借贷关系，而这种借贷关系的发生提升了同姓氏网络下的民间借贷风险的发生频率。基于中国空壳企业的微观数据，我们发现企业空壳化的加剧会显著提升民间借贷风险，这种风险加剧效应主要由以非法目的成立的先天型空壳企业所导致，我们还发现空壳企业可以通过降低地区正规金融可得性、提升民间借贷活跃度和降低民间借贷担保水平，从而导致民间借贷风险上升。
北京大学金融工程实验室
“对话投资总监”系列讲座
2026年总第四十三讲：从AlphaGo、ChatGPT到量化投资
主讲人：吕杰勇（平方和投资创始合伙人、总经理）
主持老师：（北大经院）黎新平
时间：2026年11月6日（周五）19:00-20:30
地点：北京大学经济学院107会议室
主要内容：
本次讲座邀请平方和创始人吕杰勇，结合平方和投资的发展与成长，介绍量化投研技术在实践中的演化路径，讨论深度学习在多因子模型合成及组合优化中的应用。吕杰勇将从行业第一线的实践角度，探讨人工智能浪潮下LLM在金融预测中的应用挑战与AI Agent在量化投资中的角色，分析当前AI赋能量化投资的痛点，以及"人机结合"的实战路径与展望。
主讲人简介：
吕杰勇，平方和投资创始合伙人、总经理，北京大学数学学士，北京大学计算机硕士，拥有15年以上的国内量化投资实战经验和管理经验；曾任职于搜狐、腾讯，从事互联网大数据挖掘研究，精通机器学习、统计学习等算法理论。自2009年开始投身量化投资领域，分别于博时基金和中信证券从事量化投资研究工作，管理客户资金、自营资金。2015年创立平方和投资。
供稿：科研与博士后办公室
美编：初夏
责编：度量、雨禾、雨田
