北大经院工作坊第1319场
Self-Control and Overconsumption: Empirical Evidence from Cigarette Purchases
经院-全健院
“健康与劳动经济学”工作坊
主讲人：Ho Quoc Dang Hung (Assistant Professor at Nanyang Business School, Nanyang Technological University)
主持人：（北大全健院）潘聿航
参与老师：
（北大经院）秦雪征、施新政、石菊、姚奕、袁野、王耀璟、梁远宁、庄晨
（北大全健院）刘国恩、黄成、孙宇、杨佳楠、崔知涵、林淑君、林昊翔、蒋少翔
时间：2026年9月9日（周三）10：00-11：30
地点：北京大学经济学院305会议室
主讲人简介：
Ho Quoc Dang Hung is an Assistant Professor at Nanyang Business School, Nanyang Technological University (NTU), Singapore.
He studies problems at the intersection of marketing, public policy, and behavioral industrial organization. His research focuses on how psychological factors shape consumer-firm interactions in markets where marketing strategies can lead to unintended or adverse outcomes. Using tools from causal inference, structural modeling, and machine learning, he examines how to limit such outcomes, design more effective interventions, and promote healthier decision-making.
He obtained both his PhD and undergraduate degrees at the University of Chicago, and also spent time working as a research coordinator at Wharton. His hometown is Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.
摘要：
Using transaction data from more than 10,000 smokers across 121 convenience stores, this study examines how consumers exercise self-control when purchasing vice goods. I exploit variation in exposure to multipack discounts (e.g., "buy 2, get $1 off") and show that many smokers forgo these deals in favor of frequent single-pack trips. This pattern is specific to cigarettes: the same consumers redeem multi-unit discounts of other products at typical rates. Using an instrumental variable strategy, I find that buying an extra pack due to a discount causes smokers to increase daily smoking by 35%. I then estimate a mixed-type structural model that allows smokers to differ in their overconsumption risk and awareness of that risk. I find that most smokers are prone to overconsume, and about two-thirds are at least partially aware of this risk.
Counterfactuals show that reintroducing a half-sized pack reduces consumption by about 2% when priced at 80% of the standard pack and by up to 4.5% when priced at 60%. By contrast, the model predicts that banning quantity discounts would reduce consumption by less than 1%, consistent with evidence from New York's statewide discount ban.
供稿：科研与博士后办公室
美编：初夏
责编：度量、雨禾、雨田
