国际经济论坛：富人社区模型 PK 巴萨模型：一个关于实际汇率的一般理论
The Rich Neighborhood Effect vs. the Balassa-Samuelson Theory:
A General Theory of National Price Levels
报告人：唐翔，北京大学经济学院副教授
时间：2014年5月16日下午14:00-15:30
地点：经济学院203会议室
论文摘要：作为对国际价格水平差异的标准解释，巴拉萨—萨缪尔森（BS）模型依赖于国内劳动力同质假设和跨部门工资套利行为。本文提出了一个与之相对的“富人社区效应”。这是一个更为一般性的理论框架，既可以在一国劳动力异质的条件下解释国际价格水平差异，又可以融合需求面的理论解释。事实上，它认为人口的教育结构是解释国际价格水平差异的关键变量。本文更拓展出一个更具现实意义的富人社区效应当代模型，它推论，在当今世界，高收入国家与低收入国家的实际汇率决定机制不同。就高收入国家而言，实际收入与人口教育结构对一国物价水平都是重要的显性解释变量。就低收入国家而言，人口教育结构只是隐性的决定变量——其作用无法通过现有数据来验证。经验数据证实了以上推论，以有力的证据表明，富人社区模型应当取代传统的巴萨模型，作为这一领域的主导理论框架。
Abstract: As a standard explanation for national price levels, the Balassa-Samuelson (BS) theory presupposes a homogeneous domestic labor force and intersectoral labor mobility. We propose a contrasting theory of the “rich neighborhood effect” (RNE). It is a more general theory because it explicitly allows for domestic labor force heterogeneity and because it is formulated as a coherent supply-demand framework that incorporates demand-side factors such as the Linder effect. We also develop a contemporary model of the RNE that predicts different behavior of the price level between high-income and low-income countries, which is confirmed by the empirical data. Specifically, we show that for high-income countries both income and the skill structure of the population are important independent explanators of the price level, though for low-income countries the skill structure of the population only plays an implicit determining role that is not detectable in the available data. These results are compelling evidence in favor of the RNE over the BS theory.
工作论文下载地址：
http://ssrn.com/abstract=2434401
