北大经院工作坊第1328场
Rails, Risks, and Resilience: A Dynamic Spatial Equilibrium Analysis with Catastrophic Natural Disaster
国际经济学与实证产业组织工作坊
主讲人：Daisuke Adachi（Aarhus University）
主持老师：（北大国发院）薛思帆
参与老师：
（北大经院）杨汝岱、田巍、刘政文、吴群锋、莫家伟
（北大新结构）王歆、徐铭梽
（北大国发院）余昌华
时间：2026年9月29日（周二）10：00-11：30
地点：北京大学国家发展研究院承泽园245教室
主讲人简介：
Daisuke Adachi is an Associate Professor of Economics at the Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University. He is also a Specially Appointed Fellow at the Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI) in Tokyo and a research affiliate at RFBerlin. His research lies at the intersection of international trade and labor economics. He studies how automation and globalization shape employment, wages, and the skills of workers. His work has appeared in leading journals, including the Journal of Labor Economics, the Journal of Monetary Economics, and the Review of Economics and Statistics. His current projects examine lifelong education as a response to offshoring risk, firm-specific training and career development, monopsony in two-sided matching markets, the resolution of dismissal disputes, and infrastructure investment under natural disaster risk. He leads the Carlsberg Foundation Semper Ardens Accelerate project “Automation and Skill Development in the Global Economy” (2026–2030). He received his Ph.D. in Economics from Yale University in 2021, and his B.A. and M.A. in Economics from the University of Tokyo.
摘要：
High-speed railway networks promote economic linkages between regions, yet catastrophic natural disasters can disrupt these networks. We develop a dynamic stochastic spatial equilibrium model with regional input sourcing, endogenous prices, and gradual migration. Disasters temporarily reduce regional productivity and raise firms’ input-sourcing costs by disrupting the railway network. We apply the model to Japan’s Tokai Trough Earthquake (TTE) and the Chuo Shinkansen (CS) maglev railway project. We calibrate productivity recovery and network disruption from evidence on the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake. The model qualitatively reproduces the observed slow population decline and wage overshoot in affected regions. The population-weighted steady-state effect of TTE exposure is a welfare loss equal to 6.9% of permanent consumption. Moreover, the loss extends to regions far from the epicenter through production linkages. The CS delivers a welfare gain of 3.0% in the earthquake-exposed economy and 2.0% in the no-earthquake benchmark, suggesting a CS redundancy premium of 1.0 percentage points.
北大经院工作坊第1329场
Gendered Impacts of Housing Prices on Adolescent Mental Health: The Role of Sibling Sex Composition
经院-全健院
“健康与劳动经济学”工作坊
主讲人：周明海（浙江大学经济学院百人计划研究员）
主持人：（北大全健院）崔知涵
参与老师：
（北大经院）秦雪征、施新政、石菊、姚奕、袁野、王耀璟、梁远宁、庄晨
（北大全健院）刘国恩、黄成、孙宇、杨佳楠、林昊翔、蒋少翔、潘聿航
时间：2026年9月30日（周三）10：00-11：30
地点：北京大学经济学院305会议室
主讲人简介：
周明海博士，浙江大学经济学院百人计划研究员、博士生导师、劳动经济学系副主任，主要研究领域包括劳动经济学、国际经济学、发展经济学和中国经济，具体研究主题包括中国的要素收入分配、经理人劳动力市场、劳动力迁移和流动等问题。他曾主持和参与国家和省部级课题20项，在Economic Journal、Journal of International Economics、Journal of Development Economics、Journal of Human Resources、《经济研究》、《管理世界》、《中国工业经济》、《中国人口科学》等国内外知名经济学期刊发表学术论文30余篇，在Springer出版社出版英文独著1部。博士研究获得2013年全国百篇优秀博士论文提名，英文专著Labor’s Share of Income: Another Key to Understand China’s Income Inequality获浙江省第十九届哲学社会科学优秀成果“应用理论与对策咨询类”二等奖。现为中国劳动经济学会灵活就业与智能劳动分会理事、浙江省经济学会理事、之江青年社科学者协会理事。
摘要：
This paper examines how housing prices affect adolescent mental health within the institutional context of male home-purchasing obligations. Using a model of intrahousehold resource allocation, we predict that gendered impacts of housing prices depend on sibling sex composition. Exploiting a quasi-experimental housing purchase restriction policy in China, we find significantly negative effects of rising housing prices for boys in son-only households and for girls with male siblings, but insignificant effects for boys with female siblings and girls in daughter-only households. These effects may operate through self- and sibling comparisons of educational expectations and investments, as well as parental mental health.
供稿：科研与博士后办公室
美编：初夏
责编：度量、雨禾、雨田
